Confronting mitigation deterrence in low-carbon scenarios
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) features heavily in low-carbon scenarios, where it often substitutes for emission reductions in both the near-term and long-term, enabling temperature targets to be met at lower cost. There are major concerns around the scale of CDR deployment in many low-carbon scenario...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0749 |
| _version_ | 1797747594856759296 |
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| author | Neil Grant Adam Hawkes Shivika Mittal Ajay Gambhir |
| author_facet | Neil Grant Adam Hawkes Shivika Mittal Ajay Gambhir |
| author_sort | Neil Grant |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) features heavily in low-carbon scenarios, where it often substitutes for emission reductions in both the near-term and long-term, enabling temperature targets to be met at lower cost. There are major concerns around the scale of CDR deployment in many low-carbon scenarios, and the risk that anticipated future CDR could dilute incentives to reduce emissions now, a phenomenon known as mitigation deterrence. Here we conduct an in-depth analysis into the relationship between emissions reduction and emissions removal in a global integrated assessment model. We explore the impact of CDR on low-carbon scenarios, illustrating how the pathway for the 2020s is highly sensitive to assumptions around CDR availability. Using stochastic optimisation, we demonstrate that accounting for uncertainty in future CDR deployment provides a strong rationale to increase rates of mitigation in the 2020s. A 20% chance of CDR deployment failure requires additional emissions reduction in 2030 of 3–17 GtCO _2 . Finally, we introduce new scenarios which demonstrate the risks of mitigation deterrence and the benefits of formally separating CDR and emissions reduction as climate strategies. Continual mitigation deterrence across the time-horizon leads to the temperature goals being breached by 0.2–0.3 °C. If CDR is treated as additional to emissions reduction, up to an additional 700–800 GtCO _2 can be removed from the atmosphere by 2100, reducing end-of-century warming by up to 0.5 °C. This could put sub-1.5 °C targets within reach but requires that CDR is additional to, rather than replaces, emission reductions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-710653b6781e41e39953908ce627abdf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:51Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-710653b6781e41e39953908ce627abdf2023-08-09T15:03:11ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116606409910.1088/1748-9326/ac0749Confronting mitigation deterrence in low-carbon scenariosNeil Grant0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8671-5012Adam Hawkes1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9720-332XShivika Mittal2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4718-0064Ajay Gambhir3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5079-4537Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London , London SW7 2AZ, United KingdomDepartment of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London , London SW7 2AZ, United KingdomGrantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London , London SW7 2AZ, United KingdomGrantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London , London SW7 2AZ, United KingdomCarbon dioxide removal (CDR) features heavily in low-carbon scenarios, where it often substitutes for emission reductions in both the near-term and long-term, enabling temperature targets to be met at lower cost. There are major concerns around the scale of CDR deployment in many low-carbon scenarios, and the risk that anticipated future CDR could dilute incentives to reduce emissions now, a phenomenon known as mitigation deterrence. Here we conduct an in-depth analysis into the relationship between emissions reduction and emissions removal in a global integrated assessment model. We explore the impact of CDR on low-carbon scenarios, illustrating how the pathway for the 2020s is highly sensitive to assumptions around CDR availability. Using stochastic optimisation, we demonstrate that accounting for uncertainty in future CDR deployment provides a strong rationale to increase rates of mitigation in the 2020s. A 20% chance of CDR deployment failure requires additional emissions reduction in 2030 of 3–17 GtCO _2 . Finally, we introduce new scenarios which demonstrate the risks of mitigation deterrence and the benefits of formally separating CDR and emissions reduction as climate strategies. Continual mitigation deterrence across the time-horizon leads to the temperature goals being breached by 0.2–0.3 °C. If CDR is treated as additional to emissions reduction, up to an additional 700–800 GtCO _2 can be removed from the atmosphere by 2100, reducing end-of-century warming by up to 0.5 °C. This could put sub-1.5 °C targets within reach but requires that CDR is additional to, rather than replaces, emission reductions.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0749negative emissionscarbon dioxide removalmitigation deterrenceclimate changeCDRNET |
| spellingShingle | Neil Grant Adam Hawkes Shivika Mittal Ajay Gambhir Confronting mitigation deterrence in low-carbon scenarios Environmental Research Letters negative emissions carbon dioxide removal mitigation deterrence climate change CDR NET |
| title | Confronting mitigation deterrence in low-carbon scenarios |
| title_full | Confronting mitigation deterrence in low-carbon scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Confronting mitigation deterrence in low-carbon scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Confronting mitigation deterrence in low-carbon scenarios |
| title_short | Confronting mitigation deterrence in low-carbon scenarios |
| title_sort | confronting mitigation deterrence in low carbon scenarios |
| topic | negative emissions carbon dioxide removal mitigation deterrence climate change CDR NET |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0749 |
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