Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method
Space launch projects are extremely risky, and any equipment failure or human error may lead to disastrous consequences. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is beneficial to qualitative analysis of risk, but it has not been paid enough attention in risk analysis for space launch systems (SLSs). Comp...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2022-06-01
|
| Series: | Aerospace |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/9/6/311 |
| _version_ | 1827663398204080128 |
|---|---|
| author | Xing Pan Song Ding Wenjin Zhang Tun Liu Liqin Wang Lijing Wang |
| author_facet | Xing Pan Song Ding Wenjin Zhang Tun Liu Liqin Wang Lijing Wang |
| author_sort | Xing Pan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Space launch projects are extremely risky, and any equipment failure or human error may lead to disastrous consequences. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is beneficial to qualitative analysis of risk, but it has not been paid enough attention in risk analysis for space launch systems (SLSs). Compared with most qualitative risk analysis in this field, this paper proposes a risk analysis framework based on Bayesian network (BN) with fuzzy method, which is suitable for probabilistic risk analysis of SLS. This method establishes a risk analysis model of SLS based on statistics and expert experience and reduces the uncertainty of the model by using fuzzy theory. By predicting the system risk probabilities, diagnosing the key risk causes, determining the risk conduction path, and performing a sensitivity analysis, the proposed risk analysis framework is aimed at alleviating this drawback to deal more effectively with the uncertainties in the field of space launches. A case study of space launches demonstrates and verifies the proposed method, and it also provides guidance for similar engineering projects. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:42:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-711201eae86c41a4b0f802045ce99f3c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2226-4310 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:42:05Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Aerospace |
| spelling | doaj.art-711201eae86c41a4b0f802045ce99f3c2023-11-23T15:05:34ZengMDPI AGAerospace2226-43102022-06-019631110.3390/aerospace9060311Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy MethodXing Pan0Song Ding1Wenjin Zhang2Tun Liu3Liqin Wang4Lijing Wang5School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, ChinaSchool of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, ChinaSchool of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, ChinaSchool of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, ChinaBeijing Special Engineering and Design Institute, Beijing 100082, ChinaSchool of Aeronautic Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, ChinaSpace launch projects are extremely risky, and any equipment failure or human error may lead to disastrous consequences. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is beneficial to qualitative analysis of risk, but it has not been paid enough attention in risk analysis for space launch systems (SLSs). Compared with most qualitative risk analysis in this field, this paper proposes a risk analysis framework based on Bayesian network (BN) with fuzzy method, which is suitable for probabilistic risk analysis of SLS. This method establishes a risk analysis model of SLS based on statistics and expert experience and reduces the uncertainty of the model by using fuzzy theory. By predicting the system risk probabilities, diagnosing the key risk causes, determining the risk conduction path, and performing a sensitivity analysis, the proposed risk analysis framework is aimed at alleviating this drawback to deal more effectively with the uncertainties in the field of space launches. A case study of space launches demonstrates and verifies the proposed method, and it also provides guidance for similar engineering projects.https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/9/6/311probability risk assessmentBayesian networkfuzzy methodspace launch system |
| spellingShingle | Xing Pan Song Ding Wenjin Zhang Tun Liu Liqin Wang Lijing Wang Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method Aerospace probability risk assessment Bayesian network fuzzy method space launch system |
| title | Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method |
| title_full | Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method |
| title_short | Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method |
| title_sort | probabilistic risk assessment in space launches using bayesian network with fuzzy method |
| topic | probability risk assessment Bayesian network fuzzy method space launch system |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/9/6/311 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xingpan probabilisticriskassessmentinspacelaunchesusingbayesiannetworkwithfuzzymethod AT songding probabilisticriskassessmentinspacelaunchesusingbayesiannetworkwithfuzzymethod AT wenjinzhang probabilisticriskassessmentinspacelaunchesusingbayesiannetworkwithfuzzymethod AT tunliu probabilisticriskassessmentinspacelaunchesusingbayesiannetworkwithfuzzymethod AT liqinwang probabilisticriskassessmentinspacelaunchesusingbayesiannetworkwithfuzzymethod AT lijingwang probabilisticriskassessmentinspacelaunchesusingbayesiannetworkwithfuzzymethod |