The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the Mauritian export trade: a disaggregated analysis
Purpose – This study aims at evaluating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the export trade system for Mauritius during the first half of 2020 (January 2020–June 2020). Design/methodology/approach – An initial analysis of the monthly export time series data proves that on the whole, the series h...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Emerald Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | International Trade, Politics and Development |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/ITPD-06-2021-0007/full/pdf?title=the-impact-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-the-mauritian-export-trade-a-disaggregated-analysis |
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| author | Zameelah Khan Jaffur Boopen Seetanah Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur Sheereen Fauzel Viraiyan Teeroovengadum Sonalisingh Ramsohok |
| author_facet | Zameelah Khan Jaffur Boopen Seetanah Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur Sheereen Fauzel Viraiyan Teeroovengadum Sonalisingh Ramsohok |
| author_sort | Zameelah Khan Jaffur |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Purpose – This study aims at evaluating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the export trade system for Mauritius during the first half of 2020 (January 2020–June 2020). Design/methodology/approach – An initial analysis of the monthly export time series data proves that on the whole, the series have diverged from their actual trends after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic: observed values are less than those predicted by the selected optimal forecast models. The authors subsequently employ the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) framework for causal analysis to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the island's export system. Findings – Overall, the findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic has a statistically significant and negative impact on the Mauritian export trade system, with the five main export trading partners and sectors the most affected. Despite that the impact in some cases is not apparent for the period of study, the results indicate that total exports will surely be affected by the pandemic in the long run. Nevertheless, this depends on the measures taken both locally and globally to mitigate the spread of the pandemic. Originality/value – This study thus contributes to the growing literature on the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic by focussing on a small island economy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:46:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-71652b7ee7e24855b4b8d5365f110454 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2586-3932 2632-122X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:46:27Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Emerald Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Trade, Politics and Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-71652b7ee7e24855b4b8d5365f1104542022-12-22T04:30:57ZengEmerald PublishingInternational Trade, Politics and Development2586-39322632-122X2022-01-0161144410.1108/ITPD-06-2021-0007679960The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the Mauritian export trade: a disaggregated analysisZameelah Khan Jaffur0Boopen Seetanah1Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur2Sheereen Fauzel3Viraiyan Teeroovengadum4Sonalisingh Ramsohok5University of Mauritius, Reduit, MauritiusUniversity of Mauritius, Reduit, MauritiusUniversity of Mauritius, Reduit, MauritiusUniversity of Mauritius, Reduit, MauritiusUniversity of Mauritius, Reduit, MauritiusEconomic Development Board Mauritius, Port-Louis, MauritiusPurpose – This study aims at evaluating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the export trade system for Mauritius during the first half of 2020 (January 2020–June 2020). Design/methodology/approach – An initial analysis of the monthly export time series data proves that on the whole, the series have diverged from their actual trends after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic: observed values are less than those predicted by the selected optimal forecast models. The authors subsequently employ the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) framework for causal analysis to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the island's export system. Findings – Overall, the findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic has a statistically significant and negative impact on the Mauritian export trade system, with the five main export trading partners and sectors the most affected. Despite that the impact in some cases is not apparent for the period of study, the results indicate that total exports will surely be affected by the pandemic in the long run. Nevertheless, this depends on the measures taken both locally and globally to mitigate the spread of the pandemic. Originality/value – This study thus contributes to the growing literature on the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic by focussing on a small island economy.https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/ITPD-06-2021-0007/full/pdf?title=the-impact-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-the-mauritian-export-trade-a-disaggregated-analysiscovid-19tradebayesian structural time seriesmauritiusc53f14n77 |
| spellingShingle | Zameelah Khan Jaffur Boopen Seetanah Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur Sheereen Fauzel Viraiyan Teeroovengadum Sonalisingh Ramsohok The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the Mauritian export trade: a disaggregated analysis International Trade, Politics and Development covid-19 trade bayesian structural time series mauritius c53 f14 n77 |
| title | The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the Mauritian export trade: a disaggregated analysis |
| title_full | The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the Mauritian export trade: a disaggregated analysis |
| title_fullStr | The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the Mauritian export trade: a disaggregated analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the Mauritian export trade: a disaggregated analysis |
| title_short | The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the Mauritian export trade: a disaggregated analysis |
| title_sort | impact of covid 19 outbreak on the mauritian export trade a disaggregated analysis |
| topic | covid-19 trade bayesian structural time series mauritius c53 f14 n77 |
| url | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/ITPD-06-2021-0007/full/pdf?title=the-impact-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-the-mauritian-export-trade-a-disaggregated-analysis |
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