Regional Reconstruction of Po River Basin (Italy) Streamflow
The Po River Basin (PRB) is Italy’s largest river system and provides a vital water supply source for varying demands, including agriculture, energy (hydropower), and water supply. The current (2022) drought has been associated with low winter–early spring (2021–2022) snow accumulation in higher ele...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/9/10/163 |
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| author | Giuseppe Formetta Glenn Tootle Matthew Therrell |
| author_facet | Giuseppe Formetta Glenn Tootle Matthew Therrell |
| author_sort | Giuseppe Formetta |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Po River Basin (PRB) is Italy’s largest river system and provides a vital water supply source for varying demands, including agriculture, energy (hydropower), and water supply. The current (2022) drought has been associated with low winter–early spring (2021–2022) snow accumulation in higher elevations (European Alps) and a lack of late spring–early summer (2022) precipitation, resulting in deficit PRB streamflow. Many local scientists are now estimating a 50- to 100-year (return period) drought for 2022. Given the importance of this river system, information about past (paleo) drought and pluvial periods would provide important information to water managers and planners. Annual streamflow data were obtained for thirteen gauges that were spatially located across the PRB. The Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) provides annual June–July–August (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) data for 5414 grid points across Europe from 0 to 2012 AD. In lieu of tree-ring chronologies, this dataset was used as a proxy to reconstruct PRB regional streamflow. Singular value decomposition (SVD) was applied to PRB streamflow gauges and gridded scPDSI data for two periods of record, referred to as the short period of record (SPOR), 1980 to 2012 (33 years), and the long period of record (LPOR), 1967 to 2012 (46 years). SVD serves as both a data reduction technique, identifying significant scPDSI grid points within the selected 450 km search radius, and develops a single vector that represents the regional PRB streamflow variability. Due to the high intercorrelations of PRB streamflow gauges, the SVD-generated PRB regional streamflow vector was used as the dependent variable in regression models for both the SPOR and LPOR, while the significant scPDSI grid points (cells) identified by SVD were used as the independent variables. This resulted in two highly skillful regional reconstructions of PRB streamflow from 0 to 2012. Multiple drought and pluvial periods were identified in the paleo record that exceed those observed in the recent historical record, and several of these droughts aligned with paleo streamflow reconstructions of neighboring European watersheds. Future research will utilize the PRB reconstructions to quantify the current (2022) drought, providing a first-time paleo-perspective of drought frequency in the watershed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T20:07:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-71834f0bcdd64dbcab153f0515b4d126 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T20:07:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj.art-71834f0bcdd64dbcab153f0515b4d1262023-11-24T00:24:57ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382022-09-0191016310.3390/hydrology9100163Regional Reconstruction of Po River Basin (Italy) StreamflowGiuseppe Formetta0Glenn Tootle1Matthew Therrell2Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, 77-38123 Trento, ItalyDepartment of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USADepartment of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35401, USAThe Po River Basin (PRB) is Italy’s largest river system and provides a vital water supply source for varying demands, including agriculture, energy (hydropower), and water supply. The current (2022) drought has been associated with low winter–early spring (2021–2022) snow accumulation in higher elevations (European Alps) and a lack of late spring–early summer (2022) precipitation, resulting in deficit PRB streamflow. Many local scientists are now estimating a 50- to 100-year (return period) drought for 2022. Given the importance of this river system, information about past (paleo) drought and pluvial periods would provide important information to water managers and planners. Annual streamflow data were obtained for thirteen gauges that were spatially located across the PRB. The Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) provides annual June–July–August (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) data for 5414 grid points across Europe from 0 to 2012 AD. In lieu of tree-ring chronologies, this dataset was used as a proxy to reconstruct PRB regional streamflow. Singular value decomposition (SVD) was applied to PRB streamflow gauges and gridded scPDSI data for two periods of record, referred to as the short period of record (SPOR), 1980 to 2012 (33 years), and the long period of record (LPOR), 1967 to 2012 (46 years). SVD serves as both a data reduction technique, identifying significant scPDSI grid points within the selected 450 km search radius, and develops a single vector that represents the regional PRB streamflow variability. Due to the high intercorrelations of PRB streamflow gauges, the SVD-generated PRB regional streamflow vector was used as the dependent variable in regression models for both the SPOR and LPOR, while the significant scPDSI grid points (cells) identified by SVD were used as the independent variables. This resulted in two highly skillful regional reconstructions of PRB streamflow from 0 to 2012. Multiple drought and pluvial periods were identified in the paleo record that exceed those observed in the recent historical record, and several of these droughts aligned with paleo streamflow reconstructions of neighboring European watersheds. Future research will utilize the PRB reconstructions to quantify the current (2022) drought, providing a first-time paleo-perspective of drought frequency in the watershed.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/9/10/163Po River basin (Italy)streamflow reconstructiontree ringsPalmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)drought |
| spellingShingle | Giuseppe Formetta Glenn Tootle Matthew Therrell Regional Reconstruction of Po River Basin (Italy) Streamflow Hydrology Po River basin (Italy) streamflow reconstruction tree rings Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) drought |
| title | Regional Reconstruction of Po River Basin (Italy) Streamflow |
| title_full | Regional Reconstruction of Po River Basin (Italy) Streamflow |
| title_fullStr | Regional Reconstruction of Po River Basin (Italy) Streamflow |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional Reconstruction of Po River Basin (Italy) Streamflow |
| title_short | Regional Reconstruction of Po River Basin (Italy) Streamflow |
| title_sort | regional reconstruction of po river basin italy streamflow |
| topic | Po River basin (Italy) streamflow reconstruction tree rings Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) drought |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/9/10/163 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT giuseppeformetta regionalreconstructionofporiverbasinitalystreamflow AT glenntootle regionalreconstructionofporiverbasinitalystreamflow AT matthewtherrell regionalreconstructionofporiverbasinitalystreamflow |