Using Ecological Niche Models for Population and Range Estimates of a Threatened Snake Species (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in Canada
Modelling the distribution and abundance of species at risk is extremely important for their conservation and management. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict the occurrence of western rattlesnakes (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We applied this...
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MDPI AG
2021-09-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/13/10/467 |
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| author | David Anthony Kirk Sahebeh Karimi Jared R. Maida Jessica A. Harvey Karl W. Larsen Christine A. Bishop |
| author_facet | David Anthony Kirk Sahebeh Karimi Jared R. Maida Jessica A. Harvey Karl W. Larsen Christine A. Bishop |
| author_sort | David Anthony Kirk |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Modelling the distribution and abundance of species at risk is extremely important for their conservation and management. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict the occurrence of western rattlesnakes (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We applied this to existing population estimates to support a threshold of occurrence for management and conservation. We also identified predictors influencing rattlesnake distribution and abundance in this region. Using a Geographic Information Systems platform, we incorporated ENMs, capture–mark–recapture (CMR) and radio-telemetry results, province-wide observations, Landsat imagery and provincial databases for agricultural land use to produce quantitative, spatially explicit, population estimates across BC. Using available western rattlesnake habitat estimated at 183.9 km<sup>2</sup> and averaging estimates calculated from densities in three study populations, we generated a mean adult population size of 9722 (±SD 3009; 0.8 relative index of occurrence [RIO] threshold). Only a small area (21.6 km<sup>2</sup>) of suitable land cover was located within protected areas, potentially protecting an estimated 1144 (±354) adults. Most suitable land cover was within 500 m of roads (170.6 km<sup>2</sup>), representing potential habitat being used by an estimated 9017 (±2791) adults. At the threshold RIO value chosen (0.8), only a very small area of farmland provided suitable land cover. Our results highlight the possibility of high mortality rates for western rattlesnakes near roads and the fact that protected areas do not provide sufficient coverage to conserve the population. Given that this species has relatively low mobility and high site fidelity to home ranges, our population estimate for BC provides a useful reference for the northern part of the species’ range. It also fulfills a need to estimate population size within political jurisdictions where conservation management decisions are made, as well as presenting a method that can be applied to other parts of the range, including the southern United States. Our study provides an important benchmark for future monitoring of western rattlesnakes in BC using a repeatable and transparent approach. Similar applications can be extrapolated and applied for other threatened species to identify and quantify population distributions and threats, further supporting conservation prioritization tools to be used to maximize the effectiveness of conservation strategies under financial constraints. |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:36:36Z |
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| spelling | doaj.art-718dcd2b19874e09a4a7a442db842ec52023-11-22T17:59:18ZengMDPI AGDiversity1424-28182021-09-01131046710.3390/d13100467Using Ecological Niche Models for Population and Range Estimates of a Threatened Snake Species (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in CanadaDavid Anthony Kirk0Sahebeh Karimi1Jared R. Maida2Jessica A. Harvey3Karl W. Larsen4Christine A. Bishop5Aquila Conservation & Environment Consulting, C.P. 87 Carlsbad Springs, Ottawa, ON K0A 1K0, CanadaAquila Conservation & Environment Consulting, C.P. 87 Carlsbad Springs, Ottawa, ON K0A 1K0, CanadaEnvironment and Climate Change Canada, Canadian Wildlife Service, 1238 Discovery Ave, 1st Floor, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V9, CanadaCorvidae Environmental Consulting, 6526 Water Street, Sooke, BC V9Z 0X1, CanadaDepartment of Natural Resource Science, Thompson Rivers University, 805 TRU Way, Kamloops, BC V2C 0C8, CanadaEnvironment and Climate Change Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Wildlife Research Division, 5421 Robertson Road, Delta, BC V4K 3N2, CanadaModelling the distribution and abundance of species at risk is extremely important for their conservation and management. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict the occurrence of western rattlesnakes (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We applied this to existing population estimates to support a threshold of occurrence for management and conservation. We also identified predictors influencing rattlesnake distribution and abundance in this region. Using a Geographic Information Systems platform, we incorporated ENMs, capture–mark–recapture (CMR) and radio-telemetry results, province-wide observations, Landsat imagery and provincial databases for agricultural land use to produce quantitative, spatially explicit, population estimates across BC. Using available western rattlesnake habitat estimated at 183.9 km<sup>2</sup> and averaging estimates calculated from densities in three study populations, we generated a mean adult population size of 9722 (±SD 3009; 0.8 relative index of occurrence [RIO] threshold). Only a small area (21.6 km<sup>2</sup>) of suitable land cover was located within protected areas, potentially protecting an estimated 1144 (±354) adults. Most suitable land cover was within 500 m of roads (170.6 km<sup>2</sup>), representing potential habitat being used by an estimated 9017 (±2791) adults. At the threshold RIO value chosen (0.8), only a very small area of farmland provided suitable land cover. Our results highlight the possibility of high mortality rates for western rattlesnakes near roads and the fact that protected areas do not provide sufficient coverage to conserve the population. Given that this species has relatively low mobility and high site fidelity to home ranges, our population estimate for BC provides a useful reference for the northern part of the species’ range. It also fulfills a need to estimate population size within political jurisdictions where conservation management decisions are made, as well as presenting a method that can be applied to other parts of the range, including the southern United States. Our study provides an important benchmark for future monitoring of western rattlesnakes in BC using a repeatable and transparent approach. Similar applications can be extrapolated and applied for other threatened species to identify and quantify population distributions and threats, further supporting conservation prioritization tools to be used to maximize the effectiveness of conservation strategies under financial constraints.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/13/10/467<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>ViperidaeCanadamachine learning algorithmsecological niche models (ENMs)population estimates |
| spellingShingle | David Anthony Kirk Sahebeh Karimi Jared R. Maida Jessica A. Harvey Karl W. Larsen Christine A. Bishop Using Ecological Niche Models for Population and Range Estimates of a Threatened Snake Species (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in Canada Diversity <i>Crotalus oreganus</i> Viperidae Canada machine learning algorithms ecological niche models (ENMs) population estimates |
| title | Using Ecological Niche Models for Population and Range Estimates of a Threatened Snake Species (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in Canada |
| title_full | Using Ecological Niche Models for Population and Range Estimates of a Threatened Snake Species (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in Canada |
| title_fullStr | Using Ecological Niche Models for Population and Range Estimates of a Threatened Snake Species (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in Canada |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using Ecological Niche Models for Population and Range Estimates of a Threatened Snake Species (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in Canada |
| title_short | Using Ecological Niche Models for Population and Range Estimates of a Threatened Snake Species (<i>Crotalus oreganus</i>) in Canada |
| title_sort | using ecological niche models for population and range estimates of a threatened snake species i crotalus oreganus i in canada |
| topic | <i>Crotalus oreganus</i> Viperidae Canada machine learning algorithms ecological niche models (ENMs) population estimates |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/13/10/467 |
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