Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by generalized SIR model
New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the summer of 2021, and after holidays in the middle of October 2021, were characterized by the almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases. This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the ep...
| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Ukrainian |
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Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Sistemnì Doslìdženâ ta Informacìjnì Tehnologìï |
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| Online Access: | http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/265630 |
| _version_ | 1797351361076002816 |
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| author | Igor Nesteruk |
| author_facet | Igor Nesteruk |
| author_sort | Igor Nesteruk |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the summer of 2021, and after holidays in the middle of October 2021, were characterized by the almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases. This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the epidemic dynamics in order to assess the maximum possible values of new cases, the risk of infection, and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure were used to simulate and predict the dynamics of two new epidemic waves in Ukraine and one worldwide. Results of calculations show that new cases in Ukraine will not stop appearing before November 2022. The pandemic can continue for another ten years if the global situation with vaccination, testing, and treatment does not change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T12:59:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7191ff55db9f4622b6c416f7d763569c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1681-6048 2308-8893 |
| language | Ukrainian |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T12:59:25Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Sistemnì Doslìdženâ ta Informacìjnì Tehnologìï |
| spelling | doaj.art-7191ff55db9f4622b6c416f7d763569c2024-01-19T12:36:00ZukrIgor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic InstituteSistemnì Doslìdženâ ta Informacìjnì Tehnologìï1681-60482308-88932022-08-0129410310.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2022.2.07303583Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by generalized SIR modelIgor Nesteruk0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7250-2729Institute of Hydromechanics of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, KyivNew waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the summer of 2021, and after holidays in the middle of October 2021, were characterized by the almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases. This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the epidemic dynamics in order to assess the maximum possible values of new cases, the risk of infection, and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure were used to simulate and predict the dynamics of two new epidemic waves in Ukraine and one worldwide. Results of calculations show that new cases in Ukraine will not stop appearing before November 2022. The pandemic can continue for another ten years if the global situation with vaccination, testing, and treatment does not change.http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/265630covid-19 pandemicepidemic wavesepidemic dynamics in ukraineglobal pandemic dynamicmathematical modeling of infection diseasessir modelparameter identificationstatistical methods |
| spellingShingle | Igor Nesteruk Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by generalized SIR model Sistemnì Doslìdženâ ta Informacìjnì Tehnologìï covid-19 pandemic epidemic waves epidemic dynamics in ukraine global pandemic dynamic mathematical modeling of infection diseases sir model parameter identification statistical methods |
| title | Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by generalized SIR model |
| title_full | Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by generalized SIR model |
| title_fullStr | Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by generalized SIR model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by generalized SIR model |
| title_short | Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by generalized SIR model |
| title_sort | simulations of new covid 19 pandemic waves in ukraine and in the world by generalized sir model |
| topic | covid-19 pandemic epidemic waves epidemic dynamics in ukraine global pandemic dynamic mathematical modeling of infection diseases sir model parameter identification statistical methods |
| url | http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/265630 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT igornesteruk simulationsofnewcovid19pandemicwavesinukraineandintheworldbygeneralizedsirmodel |