Individual Behaviors and COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Strategy: A Mid-Term Multidimensional Bio-economic Modeling Approach
As of mid-2020, eradicating COVID-19 seems not to be an option, at least in the short term. The challenge for policy makers consists of implementing a suitable approach to contain the outbreak and limit extra deaths without exhausting healthcare forces while mitigating the impact on the country'...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.606371/full |
| _version_ | 1819111660894289920 |
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| author | Ahmed Ferchiou Remy Bornet Guillaume Lhermie Didier Raboisson |
| author_facet | Ahmed Ferchiou Remy Bornet Guillaume Lhermie Didier Raboisson |
| author_sort | Ahmed Ferchiou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As of mid-2020, eradicating COVID-19 seems not to be an option, at least in the short term. The challenge for policy makers consists of implementing a suitable approach to contain the outbreak and limit extra deaths without exhausting healthcare forces while mitigating the impact on the country's economy and on individuals' well-being. To better describe the trade-off between the economic, societal and public health dimensions, we developed an integrated bioeconomic optimization approach. We built a discrete age-structured model considering three main populations (youth, adults and seniors) and 8 socio-professional characteristics for the adults. Fifteen lockdown exit strategies were simulated for several options: abrupt or progressive (4 or 8 weeks) lockdown lift followed by total definitive transitory final unlocking. Three values of transmission rate (Tr) were considered to represent individuals' barrier gesture compliance. Optimization under constraint to find the best combination of scenarios and options was performed on the minimal total cost for production losses due to contracted activities and hospitalization in the short and mid-term, with 3 criteria: mortality, person-days locked and hospital saturation. The results clearly show little difference between the scenarios based on the economic impact or the 3 criteria. This means that policy makers should focus on individuals' behaviors (represented by the Tr value) more than on trying to optimize the lockdown strategy (defining who is unlocked and who is locked). For a given Tr, the choices of scenarios permit the management of the hospital saturation level with regard to both its intensity and its duration, which remains a key point for public health. The results highlight the need for behavioral or experimental economics to address COVID-19 issues through a better understanding of individual behavior motivations and the identification of ways to improve biosecurity compliance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T04:01:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-71a741951fd54ec5ada38224e78a2d3c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T04:01:09Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-71a741951fd54ec5ada38224e78a2d3c2022-12-21T18:39:44ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652020-11-01810.3389/fpubh.2020.606371606371Individual Behaviors and COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Strategy: A Mid-Term Multidimensional Bio-economic Modeling ApproachAhmed FerchiouRemy BornetGuillaume LhermieDidier RaboissonAs of mid-2020, eradicating COVID-19 seems not to be an option, at least in the short term. The challenge for policy makers consists of implementing a suitable approach to contain the outbreak and limit extra deaths without exhausting healthcare forces while mitigating the impact on the country's economy and on individuals' well-being. To better describe the trade-off between the economic, societal and public health dimensions, we developed an integrated bioeconomic optimization approach. We built a discrete age-structured model considering three main populations (youth, adults and seniors) and 8 socio-professional characteristics for the adults. Fifteen lockdown exit strategies were simulated for several options: abrupt or progressive (4 or 8 weeks) lockdown lift followed by total definitive transitory final unlocking. Three values of transmission rate (Tr) were considered to represent individuals' barrier gesture compliance. Optimization under constraint to find the best combination of scenarios and options was performed on the minimal total cost for production losses due to contracted activities and hospitalization in the short and mid-term, with 3 criteria: mortality, person-days locked and hospital saturation. The results clearly show little difference between the scenarios based on the economic impact or the 3 criteria. This means that policy makers should focus on individuals' behaviors (represented by the Tr value) more than on trying to optimize the lockdown strategy (defining who is unlocked and who is locked). For a given Tr, the choices of scenarios permit the management of the hospital saturation level with regard to both its intensity and its duration, which remains a key point for public health. The results highlight the need for behavioral or experimental economics to address COVID-19 issues through a better understanding of individual behavior motivations and the identification of ways to improve biosecurity compliance.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.606371/fullbioeconomic modelpublic healthSIRCOVID-19policy simulation |
| spellingShingle | Ahmed Ferchiou Remy Bornet Guillaume Lhermie Didier Raboisson Individual Behaviors and COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Strategy: A Mid-Term Multidimensional Bio-economic Modeling Approach Frontiers in Public Health bioeconomic model public health SIR COVID-19 policy simulation |
| title | Individual Behaviors and COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Strategy: A Mid-Term Multidimensional Bio-economic Modeling Approach |
| title_full | Individual Behaviors and COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Strategy: A Mid-Term Multidimensional Bio-economic Modeling Approach |
| title_fullStr | Individual Behaviors and COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Strategy: A Mid-Term Multidimensional Bio-economic Modeling Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Individual Behaviors and COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Strategy: A Mid-Term Multidimensional Bio-economic Modeling Approach |
| title_short | Individual Behaviors and COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Strategy: A Mid-Term Multidimensional Bio-economic Modeling Approach |
| title_sort | individual behaviors and covid 19 lockdown exit strategy a mid term multidimensional bio economic modeling approach |
| topic | bioeconomic model public health SIR COVID-19 policy simulation |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.606371/full |
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