Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries
Abstract Background Precipitation anomalies are associated with a number of poor health outcomes. One potential consequence of precipitation extremes is human geographic mobility. We evaluated the associations between precipitation anomalies (droughts and heavy rains) and short-term mobility in 23 s...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-02-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15264-z |
| _version_ | 1797863332859871232 |
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| author | Adrienne Epstein Orlando O. Harris Tarik Benmarhnia Carol S. Camlin Sheri D. Weiser |
| author_facet | Adrienne Epstein Orlando O. Harris Tarik Benmarhnia Carol S. Camlin Sheri D. Weiser |
| author_sort | Adrienne Epstein |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Precipitation anomalies are associated with a number of poor health outcomes. One potential consequence of precipitation extremes is human geographic mobility. We evaluated the associations between precipitation anomalies (droughts and heavy rains) and short-term mobility in 23 sub-Saharan African countries by linking satellite data on precipitation to cross-sectional representative surveys. Methods Using data from 23 Demographic and Health Surveys from 2011 to 2017, we estimated the associations between deviations in long-term rainfall trends and short-term mobility among 294,539 women and 136,415 men over 15 years of age. We fit multivariable logistic regression models to assess potential non-linear relationships between rainfall deviations and short-term mobility, adjusting for survey month and socio-demographic covariates, and stratified by participant gender. Furthermore, we assessed whether these associations differed by marital status. Results Rainfall deviations were associated with short-term mobility among women, but not men. The relationship between rainfall deviations and mobility among women was U-shaped, such that women had increased marginal probabilities of mobility in instances of both lower and heavier precipitation. Differences between married and unmarried women were also revealed: among married women, we found positive associations between both rainfall deviation extremes (drought and heavy rains) and mobility; however, among unmarried women, there was only a positive association for heavy rains. Conclusion Precipitation anomalies were associated with short-term mobility among women, which may be in turn associated with poor health outcomes. More research with longitudinal data is needed to elaborate the associations between weather shocks, mobility, and downstream health impacts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T22:33:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-72268f93fb584ce1a70c9a1bc4759b09 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T22:33:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-72268f93fb584ce1a70c9a1bc4759b092023-03-22T12:36:03ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582023-02-012311610.1186/s12889-023-15264-zDo precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countriesAdrienne Epstein0Orlando O. Harris1Tarik Benmarhnia2Carol S. Camlin3Sheri D. Weiser4Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical MedicineDepartment of Medicine, Center for AIDS Prevention Studies, University of CaliforniaHerbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science & Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of CaliforniaDepartment of Medicine, Center for AIDS Prevention Studies, University of CaliforniaDivision of HIV, Infectious Diseases and Global Medicine, University of CaliforniaAbstract Background Precipitation anomalies are associated with a number of poor health outcomes. One potential consequence of precipitation extremes is human geographic mobility. We evaluated the associations between precipitation anomalies (droughts and heavy rains) and short-term mobility in 23 sub-Saharan African countries by linking satellite data on precipitation to cross-sectional representative surveys. Methods Using data from 23 Demographic and Health Surveys from 2011 to 2017, we estimated the associations between deviations in long-term rainfall trends and short-term mobility among 294,539 women and 136,415 men over 15 years of age. We fit multivariable logistic regression models to assess potential non-linear relationships between rainfall deviations and short-term mobility, adjusting for survey month and socio-demographic covariates, and stratified by participant gender. Furthermore, we assessed whether these associations differed by marital status. Results Rainfall deviations were associated with short-term mobility among women, but not men. The relationship between rainfall deviations and mobility among women was U-shaped, such that women had increased marginal probabilities of mobility in instances of both lower and heavier precipitation. Differences between married and unmarried women were also revealed: among married women, we found positive associations between both rainfall deviation extremes (drought and heavy rains) and mobility; however, among unmarried women, there was only a positive association for heavy rains. Conclusion Precipitation anomalies were associated with short-term mobility among women, which may be in turn associated with poor health outcomes. More research with longitudinal data is needed to elaborate the associations between weather shocks, mobility, and downstream health impacts.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15264-zDroughtsRainDemographyAfrica South of the SaharaMigration |
| spellingShingle | Adrienne Epstein Orlando O. Harris Tarik Benmarhnia Carol S. Camlin Sheri D. Weiser Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries BMC Public Health Droughts Rain Demography Africa South of the Sahara Migration |
| title | Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries |
| title_full | Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries |
| title_fullStr | Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries |
| title_short | Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries |
| title_sort | do precipitation anomalies influence short term mobility in sub saharan africa an observational study from 23 countries |
| topic | Droughts Rain Demography Africa South of the Sahara Migration |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15264-z |
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