Supply optimization based on society’s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in Niger
Abstract Background In an attempt to realize the most beneficial and optimal mix of electricity generation in Niger, a society’s cost of electricity (SCOE) as the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) plus the cost of climate change and air pollution is formulated. The SCOE is used as a basis for set...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2019-07-01
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| Series: | Energy, Sustainability and Society |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13705-019-0217-0 |
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| author | Fitsum Bekele Tilahun Ramchandara Bhandari Mengesha Mamo |
| author_facet | Fitsum Bekele Tilahun Ramchandara Bhandari Mengesha Mamo |
| author_sort | Fitsum Bekele Tilahun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background In an attempt to realize the most beneficial and optimal mix of electricity generation in Niger, a society’s cost of electricity (SCOE) as the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) plus the cost of climate change and air pollution is formulated. The SCOE is used as a basis for setting the performance criteria for supply optimization to balance future electricity demand in Niger. The demand projection is derived from a system dynamics model that anticipates future changes based on its influencing factors of population growth, urbanization progress, and industrial development. Results Reference case and what-if scenarios are simulated to see the projected electricity demand and possible renewable energy transition pathways. As a result, for example, the annual electricity of 3214 GWh estimated for 2030 might be balanced with about 200 MW, 104 MW, 85 MW, and 63 MW power from hydropower, grid-tied PV, coal, and diesel for SCOE optimized grid. For the same case, a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction of 11.26–15.66% could be achieved when compared to the LCOE-based optimized grid. In addition, the most preferred energy option hydropower will be almost exhausted when the projected electricity demand in 2035 reaches slightly more than double its value in 2025. Thus, Niger should start exploiting its solar as well as conventional sources intensively to balance its future energy demand. Conclusions In this work, a mixed energy grid is optimized primarily on affordability while considering its sustainability. The implemented holistic approach lessens the need for energy import in the country and provides relief to energy security issues such as electricity price volatility and supply reliability. Additionally, the proposed strategy helps to guide the renewable energy transition pathway in Niger. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T05:59:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-723bdf7bed6f42e2b443bc7e527cca72 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2192-0567 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T05:59:12Z |
| publishDate | 2019-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy, Sustainability and Society |
| spelling | doaj.art-723bdf7bed6f42e2b443bc7e527cca722022-12-22T01:59:51ZengBMCEnergy, Sustainability and Society2192-05672019-07-019111710.1186/s13705-019-0217-0Supply optimization based on society’s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in NigerFitsum Bekele Tilahun0Ramchandara Bhandari1Mengesha Mamo2Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), TH Köln (University of Applied Science)Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), TH Köln (University of Applied Science)Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa UniversityAbstract Background In an attempt to realize the most beneficial and optimal mix of electricity generation in Niger, a society’s cost of electricity (SCOE) as the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) plus the cost of climate change and air pollution is formulated. The SCOE is used as a basis for setting the performance criteria for supply optimization to balance future electricity demand in Niger. The demand projection is derived from a system dynamics model that anticipates future changes based on its influencing factors of population growth, urbanization progress, and industrial development. Results Reference case and what-if scenarios are simulated to see the projected electricity demand and possible renewable energy transition pathways. As a result, for example, the annual electricity of 3214 GWh estimated for 2030 might be balanced with about 200 MW, 104 MW, 85 MW, and 63 MW power from hydropower, grid-tied PV, coal, and diesel for SCOE optimized grid. For the same case, a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction of 11.26–15.66% could be achieved when compared to the LCOE-based optimized grid. In addition, the most preferred energy option hydropower will be almost exhausted when the projected electricity demand in 2035 reaches slightly more than double its value in 2025. Thus, Niger should start exploiting its solar as well as conventional sources intensively to balance its future energy demand. Conclusions In this work, a mixed energy grid is optimized primarily on affordability while considering its sustainability. The implemented holistic approach lessens the need for energy import in the country and provides relief to energy security issues such as electricity price volatility and supply reliability. Additionally, the proposed strategy helps to guide the renewable energy transition pathway in Niger.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13705-019-0217-0Electricity demand projectionSupply optimizationSociety’s cost of electricity (SCOE)Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)Renewable energy transitionNiger |
| spellingShingle | Fitsum Bekele Tilahun Ramchandara Bhandari Mengesha Mamo Supply optimization based on society’s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in Niger Energy, Sustainability and Society Electricity demand projection Supply optimization Society’s cost of electricity (SCOE) Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) Renewable energy transition Niger |
| title | Supply optimization based on society’s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in Niger |
| title_full | Supply optimization based on society’s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in Niger |
| title_fullStr | Supply optimization based on society’s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in Niger |
| title_full_unstemmed | Supply optimization based on society’s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in Niger |
| title_short | Supply optimization based on society’s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in Niger |
| title_sort | supply optimization based on society s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in niger |
| topic | Electricity demand projection Supply optimization Society’s cost of electricity (SCOE) Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) Renewable energy transition Niger |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13705-019-0217-0 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fitsumbekeletilahun supplyoptimizationbasedonsocietyscostofelectricityandacalibrateddemandmodelforfuturerenewableenergytransitioninniger AT ramchandarabhandari supplyoptimizationbasedonsocietyscostofelectricityandacalibrateddemandmodelforfuturerenewableenergytransitioninniger AT mengeshamamo supplyoptimizationbasedonsocietyscostofelectricityandacalibrateddemandmodelforfuturerenewableenergytransitioninniger |