Current and Future Ecological Status Assessment: A New Holistic Approach for Watershed Management
The Paiva River catchment, located in Portugal, integrates the Natura 2000 network of European Union nature protection areas. Resorting to topography, climate and land-use data, a semi-distributed hydrological model (Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN) was run in order to simulate the hydrologi...
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MDPI AG
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/10/2839 |
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| author | André R. Fonseca João A. Santos Simone G.P. Varandas Sandra M. Monteiro José L. Martinho Rui M.V. Cortes Edna Cabecinha |
| author_facet | André R. Fonseca João A. Santos Simone G.P. Varandas Sandra M. Monteiro José L. Martinho Rui M.V. Cortes Edna Cabecinha |
| author_sort | André R. Fonseca |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Paiva River catchment, located in Portugal, integrates the Natura 2000 network of European Union nature protection areas. Resorting to topography, climate and land-use data, a semi-distributed hydrological model (Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN) was run in order to simulate the hydrological cycle of the river and its tributaries. The model was calibrated over a 25-year period and validated within a 31-year period. Its performance was verified by comparing the recorded and simulated daily flows. The values of the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.95 and 0.76, and coefficient of determination of 0.95 and 0.82, were achieved for calibration and validation, respectively, thus showing a quite satisfactory model performance. Subsequently, the climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation, as well as their extremes, and on the flowrates were also assessed for a future period (2041–2070) under two anthropogenic forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5). A procedure for selecting the most relevant metrics for assessing the ecological condition of the Paiva River was developed based upon a set of 52 invertebrate families sampled. Correspondence analyses were carried out for biological datasets (traits/metrics) with physicochemical and land use/land cover matrices separately. Out of all variables, water quality and flow and agriculture land use explained most of the variance observed. The integrated analysis undertaken in the present study is an important advance when compared to previous studies and it provides key information to stakeholders and decision-makers, particularly when planning suitable adaptation measures to cope with changing climates in the forthcoming decades. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:40:30Z |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:40:30Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-724b7bdcfe8d458f9e769f457f08fee22023-11-20T16:50:23ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412020-10-011210283910.3390/w12102839Current and Future Ecological Status Assessment: A New Holistic Approach for Watershed ManagementAndré R. Fonseca0João A. Santos1Simone G.P. Varandas2Sandra M. Monteiro3José L. Martinho4Rui M.V. Cortes5Edna Cabecinha6Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, 5000-801 Vila Real, PortugalCentre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, 5000-801 Vila Real, PortugalCentre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, 5000-801 Vila Real, PortugalCentre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, 5000-801 Vila Real, PortugalDepartamento de Geologia, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, 5000-801 Vila Real, PortugalCentre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, 5000-801 Vila Real, PortugalCentre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, 5000-801 Vila Real, PortugalThe Paiva River catchment, located in Portugal, integrates the Natura 2000 network of European Union nature protection areas. Resorting to topography, climate and land-use data, a semi-distributed hydrological model (Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN) was run in order to simulate the hydrological cycle of the river and its tributaries. The model was calibrated over a 25-year period and validated within a 31-year period. Its performance was verified by comparing the recorded and simulated daily flows. The values of the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.95 and 0.76, and coefficient of determination of 0.95 and 0.82, were achieved for calibration and validation, respectively, thus showing a quite satisfactory model performance. Subsequently, the climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation, as well as their extremes, and on the flowrates were also assessed for a future period (2041–2070) under two anthropogenic forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5). A procedure for selecting the most relevant metrics for assessing the ecological condition of the Paiva River was developed based upon a set of 52 invertebrate families sampled. Correspondence analyses were carried out for biological datasets (traits/metrics) with physicochemical and land use/land cover matrices separately. Out of all variables, water quality and flow and agriculture land use explained most of the variance observed. The integrated analysis undertaken in the present study is an important advance when compared to previous studies and it provides key information to stakeholders and decision-makers, particularly when planning suitable adaptation measures to cope with changing climates in the forthcoming decades.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/10/2839hydrological modellingclimate changewater qualitybiological functional traitsmacroinvertebratesHSPF |
| spellingShingle | André R. Fonseca João A. Santos Simone G.P. Varandas Sandra M. Monteiro José L. Martinho Rui M.V. Cortes Edna Cabecinha Current and Future Ecological Status Assessment: A New Holistic Approach for Watershed Management Water hydrological modelling climate change water quality biological functional traits macroinvertebrates HSPF |
| title | Current and Future Ecological Status Assessment: A New Holistic Approach for Watershed Management |
| title_full | Current and Future Ecological Status Assessment: A New Holistic Approach for Watershed Management |
| title_fullStr | Current and Future Ecological Status Assessment: A New Holistic Approach for Watershed Management |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current and Future Ecological Status Assessment: A New Holistic Approach for Watershed Management |
| title_short | Current and Future Ecological Status Assessment: A New Holistic Approach for Watershed Management |
| title_sort | current and future ecological status assessment a new holistic approach for watershed management |
| topic | hydrological modelling climate change water quality biological functional traits macroinvertebrates HSPF |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/10/2839 |
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