Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets
Phosphate fertilisers rank among limited conventional production aids, requiring eco-unfriendly mining methods. On the other hand, wheat is an indispensable agricultural commodity essential in the food industry. For this reason, it is appropriate to monitor the potential bivariate relationship betwe...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php |
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| author | Marek Vochozka Svatopluk Janek Lenka Širáňová |
| author_facet | Marek Vochozka Svatopluk Janek Lenka Širáňová |
| author_sort | Marek Vochozka |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Phosphate fertilisers rank among limited conventional production aids, requiring eco-unfriendly mining methods. On the other hand, wheat is an indispensable agricultural commodity essential in the food industry. For this reason, it is appropriate to monitor the potential bivariate relationship between these commodities and to follow their future development closely. The article aims to identify a correlation (Kendall's tau) and causal (Granger causality test) between the price of Moroccan phosphate and wheat, applying vector autoregression (VAR). The results show a medium-to-strong correlation between phosphate and wheat, while causal analysis suggests a reciprocal relationship. The final prediction indicates the price stability of Moroccan phosphate and a fall in wheat prices, showing steady trends of the Moroccan phosphate and wheat market affected by the alarming situation in Ukraine. The article's drawbacks are a narrow market specialisation, which ignores other agricultural commodities. Our findings contribute to national officeholders and professional public, private and non-profit agrarian organisations. Investors may benefit from exploring turbulent exogenous variables like a critical geopolitical deadlock in Ukraine. The main contribution highlights the fact that the conventional fertiliser and wheat market situation appears to be stable and free from elements of uncertainty. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:18:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7250bdd11d9443e5a0ee1fa59d58568c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0139-570X 1805-9295 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:18:00Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) |
| spelling | doaj.art-7250bdd11d9443e5a0ee1fa59d58568c2023-08-11T09:46:07ZengCzech Academy of Agricultural SciencesAgricultural Economics (AGRICECON)0139-570X1805-92952023-08-0169830130810.17221/140/2023-AGRICECONage-202308-0002Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity marketsMarek Vochozka0Svatopluk Janek1Lenka Širáňová2Institute of Business and Technology in České Budějovice, České Budějovice, Czech RepublicInstitute of Business and Technology in České Budějovice, České Budějovice, Czech RepublicFaculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Brno, Czech RepublicPhosphate fertilisers rank among limited conventional production aids, requiring eco-unfriendly mining methods. On the other hand, wheat is an indispensable agricultural commodity essential in the food industry. For this reason, it is appropriate to monitor the potential bivariate relationship between these commodities and to follow their future development closely. The article aims to identify a correlation (Kendall's tau) and causal (Granger causality test) between the price of Moroccan phosphate and wheat, applying vector autoregression (VAR). The results show a medium-to-strong correlation between phosphate and wheat, while causal analysis suggests a reciprocal relationship. The final prediction indicates the price stability of Moroccan phosphate and a fall in wheat prices, showing steady trends of the Moroccan phosphate and wheat market affected by the alarming situation in Ukraine. The article's drawbacks are a narrow market specialisation, which ignores other agricultural commodities. Our findings contribute to national officeholders and professional public, private and non-profit agrarian organisations. Investors may benefit from exploring turbulent exogenous variables like a critical geopolitical deadlock in Ukraine. The main contribution highlights the fact that the conventional fertiliser and wheat market situation appears to be stable and free from elements of uncertainty.https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.phpgranger causalitykendall's taumoroccan phosphatevector autoregression modelwheat |
| spellingShingle | Marek Vochozka Svatopluk Janek Lenka Širáňová Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) granger causality kendall' s tau moroccan phosphate vector autoregression model wheat |
| title | Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets |
| title_full | Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets |
| title_fullStr | Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets |
| title_full_unstemmed | Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets |
| title_short | Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets |
| title_sort | geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike evidence from moroccan commodity markets |
| topic | granger causality kendall' s tau moroccan phosphate vector autoregression model wheat |
| url | https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT marekvochozka geopoliticaldeadlockandphosphateshortfallbehindthepricehikeevidencefrommoroccancommoditymarkets AT svatoplukjanek geopoliticaldeadlockandphosphateshortfallbehindthepricehikeevidencefrommoroccancommoditymarkets AT lenkasiranova geopoliticaldeadlockandphosphateshortfallbehindthepricehikeevidencefrommoroccancommoditymarkets |