Spatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain
This study develops methods for estimating lightning climatologies on the day<sup>−1</sup> km<sup>−2</sup> scale for regions with complex terrain and applies them to summertime observations (2010–2015) of the lightning location system ALDIS in the Austrian state of...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2017-03-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/305/2017/nhess-17-305-2017.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818425187505274880 |
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| author | T. Simon N. Umlauf A. Zeileis G. J. Mayr W. Schulz G. Diendorfer |
| author_facet | T. Simon N. Umlauf A. Zeileis G. J. Mayr W. Schulz G. Diendorfer |
| author_sort | T. Simon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study develops methods for estimating lightning climatologies on the
day<sup>−1</sup> km<sup>−2</sup> scale for regions with complex terrain and applies them to summertime observations (2010–2015) of the lightning location system ALDIS in the Austrian state of Carinthia in the Eastern Alps.
<br><br>
Generalized additive models (GAMs) are used to model both the probability of
occurrence and the intensity of lightning. Additive effects are set up for
altitude, day of the year (season) and geographical location (longitude/latitude). The performance of the models is verified by 6-fold cross-validation.
<br><br>
The altitude effect of the occurrence model suggests higher probabilities of
lightning for locations on higher elevations. The seasonal effect peaks in
mid-July. The spatial effect models several local features, but there is a
pronounced minimum in the north-west and a clear maximum in the eastern part
of Carinthia. The estimated effects of the intensity model reveal similar
features, though they are not equal. The main difference is that the spatial
effect varies more strongly than the analogous effect of the occurrence model.
<br><br>
A major asset of the introduced method is that the resulting climatological
information varies smoothly over space, time and altitude. Thus, the
climatology is capable of serving as a useful tool in quantitative
applications, i.e. risk assessment and weather prediction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T14:09:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7263a61c94cf469f98f3b2f775d2b889 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T14:09:57Z |
| publishDate | 2017-03-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-7263a61c94cf469f98f3b2f775d2b8892022-12-21T22:58:20ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812017-03-0117330531410.5194/nhess-17-305-2017Spatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrainT. Simon0N. Umlauf1A. Zeileis2G. J. Mayr3W. Schulz4G. Diendorfer5Institute of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, AustriaDepartment of Statistics, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, AustriaDepartment of Statistics, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, AustriaInstitute of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, AustriaOVE-ALDIS, Vienna, AustriaOVE-ALDIS, Vienna, AustriaThis study develops methods for estimating lightning climatologies on the day<sup>−1</sup> km<sup>−2</sup> scale for regions with complex terrain and applies them to summertime observations (2010–2015) of the lightning location system ALDIS in the Austrian state of Carinthia in the Eastern Alps. <br><br> Generalized additive models (GAMs) are used to model both the probability of occurrence and the intensity of lightning. Additive effects are set up for altitude, day of the year (season) and geographical location (longitude/latitude). The performance of the models is verified by 6-fold cross-validation. <br><br> The altitude effect of the occurrence model suggests higher probabilities of lightning for locations on higher elevations. The seasonal effect peaks in mid-July. The spatial effect models several local features, but there is a pronounced minimum in the north-west and a clear maximum in the eastern part of Carinthia. The estimated effects of the intensity model reveal similar features, though they are not equal. The main difference is that the spatial effect varies more strongly than the analogous effect of the occurrence model. <br><br> A major asset of the introduced method is that the resulting climatological information varies smoothly over space, time and altitude. Thus, the climatology is capable of serving as a useful tool in quantitative applications, i.e. risk assessment and weather prediction.http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/305/2017/nhess-17-305-2017.pdf |
| spellingShingle | T. Simon N. Umlauf A. Zeileis G. J. Mayr W. Schulz G. Diendorfer Spatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Spatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain |
| title_full | Spatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain |
| title_fullStr | Spatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain |
| title_short | Spatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain |
| title_sort | spatio temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain |
| url | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/305/2017/nhess-17-305-2017.pdf |
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