Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye
Abstract Short term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time, and location is currently not possible. In some cases, however, documented observations have been retrospectively considered as precursory. Here we present seismicity transients starting approx. 8 months before the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanma...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42419-8 |
| _version_ | 1797414597732335616 |
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| author | G. Kwiatek P. Martínez-Garzón D. Becker G. Dresen F. Cotton G. C. Beroza D. Acarel S. Ergintav M. Bohnhoff |
| author_facet | G. Kwiatek P. Martínez-Garzón D. Becker G. Dresen F. Cotton G. C. Beroza D. Acarel S. Ergintav M. Bohnhoff |
| author_sort | G. Kwiatek |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Short term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time, and location is currently not possible. In some cases, however, documented observations have been retrospectively considered as precursory. Here we present seismicity transients starting approx. 8 months before the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Seismicity is composed of isolated spatio-temporal clusters within 65 km of future epicentre, displaying non-Poissonian inter-event time statistics, magnitude correlations and low Gutenberg-Richter b-values. Local comparable seismic transients have not been observed, at least since 2014. Close to epicentre and during the weeks prior to its rupture, only scarce seismic activity was observed. The trends of seismic preparatory attributes for this earthquake follow those previously documented in both laboratory stick-slip tests and numerical models of heterogeneous earthquake rupture affecting multiple fault segments. More comprehensive earthquake monitoring together with long-term seismic records may facilitate recognizing earthquake preparation processes from other regional deformation transients. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:35:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7263ab44a18c473bb2112ecd4bbeddc0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:35:37Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-7263ab44a18c473bb2112ecd4bbeddc02023-12-03T12:28:57ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232023-11-0114111010.1038/s41467-023-42419-8Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, TürkiyeG. Kwiatek0P. Martínez-Garzón1D. Becker2G. Dresen3F. Cotton4G. C. Beroza5D. Acarel6S. Ergintav7M. Bohnhoff8Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesHelmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesHelmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesHelmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesHelmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesDepartment of Geophysics, Stanford UniversityInstitute of Earth and Marine Sciences, Gebze Technical UniversityDepartment of Geodesy, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Boğaziçi UniversityHelmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesAbstract Short term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time, and location is currently not possible. In some cases, however, documented observations have been retrospectively considered as precursory. Here we present seismicity transients starting approx. 8 months before the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Seismicity is composed of isolated spatio-temporal clusters within 65 km of future epicentre, displaying non-Poissonian inter-event time statistics, magnitude correlations and low Gutenberg-Richter b-values. Local comparable seismic transients have not been observed, at least since 2014. Close to epicentre and during the weeks prior to its rupture, only scarce seismic activity was observed. The trends of seismic preparatory attributes for this earthquake follow those previously documented in both laboratory stick-slip tests and numerical models of heterogeneous earthquake rupture affecting multiple fault segments. More comprehensive earthquake monitoring together with long-term seismic records may facilitate recognizing earthquake preparation processes from other regional deformation transients.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42419-8 |
| spellingShingle | G. Kwiatek P. Martínez-Garzón D. Becker G. Dresen F. Cotton G. C. Beroza D. Acarel S. Ergintav M. Bohnhoff Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye Nature Communications |
| title | Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye |
| title_full | Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye |
| title_fullStr | Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye |
| title_full_unstemmed | Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye |
| title_short | Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye |
| title_sort | months long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 m w 7 8 kahramanmaras earthquake turkiye |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42419-8 |
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