Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Germany
Results from an explorative study revealing spatio-temporal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2/ COVID-19 epidemic in Germany are presented. We dispense with contestable model assumptions and show the intrinsic spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic dynamics. The analysis is based on COVID-19 incidence dat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Entropy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/8/1137 |
| _version_ | 1797584832608337920 |
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| author | Hans H. Diebner |
| author_facet | Hans H. Diebner |
| author_sort | Hans H. Diebner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Results from an explorative study revealing spatio-temporal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2/ COVID-19 epidemic in Germany are presented. We dispense with contestable model assumptions and show the intrinsic spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic dynamics. The analysis is based on COVID-19 incidence data, which are age-stratified and spatially resolved at the county level, provided by the Federal Government’s Public Health Institute of Germany (RKI) for public use. Although the 400 county-related incidence time series shows enormous heterogeneity, both with respect to temporal features as well as spatial distributions, the counties’ incidence curves organise into well-distinguished clusters that coincide with East and West Germany. The analysis is based on dimensionality reduction, multidimensional scaling, network analysis, and diversity measures. Dynamical changes are captured by means of difference-in-difference methods, which are related to fold changes of the effective reproduction numbers. The age-related dynamical patterns suggest a considerably stronger impact of children, adolescents and seniors on the epidemic activity than previously expected. Besides these concrete interpretations, the work mainly aims at providing an atlas for spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic, which serves as a basis to be further explored with the expertise of different disciplines, particularly sociology and policy makers. The study should also be understood as a methodological contribution to getting a handle on the unusual complexity of the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T23:58:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7284850f41d544ae8f203f3711a1800f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1099-4300 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T23:58:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Entropy |
| spelling | doaj.art-7284850f41d544ae8f203f3711a1800f2023-11-19T00:59:05ZengMDPI AGEntropy1099-43002023-07-01258113710.3390/e25081137Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in GermanyHans H. Diebner0Department of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, 44780 Bochum, GermanyResults from an explorative study revealing spatio-temporal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2/ COVID-19 epidemic in Germany are presented. We dispense with contestable model assumptions and show the intrinsic spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic dynamics. The analysis is based on COVID-19 incidence data, which are age-stratified and spatially resolved at the county level, provided by the Federal Government’s Public Health Institute of Germany (RKI) for public use. Although the 400 county-related incidence time series shows enormous heterogeneity, both with respect to temporal features as well as spatial distributions, the counties’ incidence curves organise into well-distinguished clusters that coincide with East and West Germany. The analysis is based on dimensionality reduction, multidimensional scaling, network analysis, and diversity measures. Dynamical changes are captured by means of difference-in-difference methods, which are related to fold changes of the effective reproduction numbers. The age-related dynamical patterns suggest a considerably stronger impact of children, adolescents and seniors on the epidemic activity than previously expected. Besides these concrete interpretations, the work mainly aims at providing an atlas for spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic, which serves as a basis to be further explored with the expertise of different disciplines, particularly sociology and policy makers. The study should also be understood as a methodological contribution to getting a handle on the unusual complexity of the COVID-19 pandemic.https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/8/1137COVID-19SARS-CoV-2epidemic spatial heterogeneitydiversityspatio-temporal patternscluster analysis |
| spellingShingle | Hans H. Diebner Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Germany Entropy COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic spatial heterogeneity diversity spatio-temporal patterns cluster analysis |
| title | Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Germany |
| title_full | Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Germany |
| title_fullStr | Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Germany |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Germany |
| title_short | Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Germany |
| title_sort | spatio temporal patterns of the sars cov 2 epidemic in germany |
| topic | COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic spatial heterogeneity diversity spatio-temporal patterns cluster analysis |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/8/1137 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hanshdiebner spatiotemporalpatternsofthesarscov2epidemicingermany |