Demand and residual demand modelling using quantile regression
Residual demand, the difference between demand and solar and wind production, is an important variable in predicting the future price and storage requirements. However, little is known about predicting the residual demand itself as well as its quantiles. Therefore, we model both demand and residual...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
EDP Sciences
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Renewable Energy and Environmental Sustainability |
| Online Access: | https://www.rees-journal.org/articles/rees/full_html/2016/01/rees160045-s/rees160045-s.html |
| Summary: | Residual demand, the difference between demand and solar and wind production, is an important variable in predicting the future price and storage requirements. However, little is known about predicting the residual demand itself as well as its quantiles. Therefore, we model both demand and residual demand using both ordinary and quantile regression and compare the results for the hourly electricity consumption in Germany. We find that the residual demand is less predictable than demand. The effect is visible for all hours, and is higher for the lower than the upper quantiles. |
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| ISSN: | 2493-9439 |