Yağışın mekânsal dağılışında deterministik ve stokastik yöntemler: Mauritius örneği, Doğu Afrika
Precipitation is one of the most important climatic parameters displaying significant changes across space and time. The accurate modeling of precipitation has become an important part of climate research for hydrological studies, the forecast of events such as droughts and floods and the estimation...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Ankara University
2016-04-01
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| Series: | Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi |
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| Online Access: | https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/aucbd/issue/44457/550961 |
| _version_ | 1797869339698790400 |
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| author | Olgu Aydın Nussaïbah Begum Raja |
| author_facet | Olgu Aydın Nussaïbah Begum Raja |
| author_sort | Olgu Aydın |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Precipitation is one of the most important climatic parameters displaying significant changes across space and time. The accurate modeling of precipitation has become an important part of climate research for hydrological studies, the forecast of events such as droughts and floods and the estimation of ground and surface water resources. For this reason, several interpolation methods have been applied and compared for the accurate generation of models. In this study, the spatial distribution of annual mean total precipitation of Mauritius, located east of Africa, was investigated by applying deterministic methods, namely Thiessen Polygon (TP) and Inverse Distance Method (IDW), and stochastic methods, namely Ordinary Kriging (OK), using precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations for the period 1981–2010. The accuracy of the models was tested using the Cross Validation method and the models were compared using the Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the Coefficient of Determination (R2). The stochastic method, OK, provided the highest performance results, generating ME, MAE, RMSE and R2 values of -17,66, 527,21, 329,53 mm and 0,88 respectively. In contrast, the deterministic method, Thiessen Polygon (TP), generated the lowest performance results, generating ME, MAE, RMSE, R2 values of -78,83, 453,92, 621,58 mm and 0,60 respectively. Therefore, according to the results obtained, it can be concluded that stochastic methods provide more accurate models as compared to deterministic methods |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:09:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-730fa8c534ce41c2bd3fda675ac08062 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1303-5851 1308-9765 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:09:58Z |
| publishDate | 2016-04-01 |
| publisher | Ankara University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj.art-730fa8c534ce41c2bd3fda675ac080622023-03-16T10:47:59ZengAnkara UniversityCoğrafi Bilimler Dergisi1303-58511308-97652016-04-0114111410.1501/Cogbil_0000000170Yağışın mekânsal dağılışında deterministik ve stokastik yöntemler: Mauritius örneği, Doğu AfrikaOlgu Aydın0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8220-6384Nussaïbah Begum RajaAnkara Üniversitesi, Dil ve Tarih-Coğrafya Fakültesi, Coğrafya Bölümü, Ankara Precipitation is one of the most important climatic parameters displaying significant changes across space and time. The accurate modeling of precipitation has become an important part of climate research for hydrological studies, the forecast of events such as droughts and floods and the estimation of ground and surface water resources. For this reason, several interpolation methods have been applied and compared for the accurate generation of models. In this study, the spatial distribution of annual mean total precipitation of Mauritius, located east of Africa, was investigated by applying deterministic methods, namely Thiessen Polygon (TP) and Inverse Distance Method (IDW), and stochastic methods, namely Ordinary Kriging (OK), using precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations for the period 1981–2010. The accuracy of the models was tested using the Cross Validation method and the models were compared using the Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the Coefficient of Determination (R2). The stochastic method, OK, provided the highest performance results, generating ME, MAE, RMSE and R2 values of -17,66, 527,21, 329,53 mm and 0,88 respectively. In contrast, the deterministic method, Thiessen Polygon (TP), generated the lowest performance results, generating ME, MAE, RMSE, R2 values of -78,83, 453,92, 621,58 mm and 0,60 respectively. Therefore, according to the results obtained, it can be concluded that stochastic methods provide more accurate models as compared to deterministic methodshttps://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/aucbd/issue/44457/550961precipitationspatial interpolationdeterministic methodsstochastic methodskriging |
| spellingShingle | Olgu Aydın Nussaïbah Begum Raja Yağışın mekânsal dağılışında deterministik ve stokastik yöntemler: Mauritius örneği, Doğu Afrika Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi precipitation spatial interpolation deterministic methods stochastic methods kriging |
| title | Yağışın mekânsal dağılışında deterministik ve stokastik yöntemler: Mauritius örneği, Doğu Afrika |
| title_full | Yağışın mekânsal dağılışında deterministik ve stokastik yöntemler: Mauritius örneği, Doğu Afrika |
| title_fullStr | Yağışın mekânsal dağılışında deterministik ve stokastik yöntemler: Mauritius örneği, Doğu Afrika |
| title_full_unstemmed | Yağışın mekânsal dağılışında deterministik ve stokastik yöntemler: Mauritius örneği, Doğu Afrika |
| title_short | Yağışın mekânsal dağılışında deterministik ve stokastik yöntemler: Mauritius örneği, Doğu Afrika |
| title_sort | yagisin mekansal dagilisinda deterministik ve stokastik yontemler mauritius ornegi dogu afrika |
| topic | precipitation spatial interpolation deterministic methods stochastic methods kriging |
| url | https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/aucbd/issue/44457/550961 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT olguaydın yagısınmekansaldagılısındadeterministikvestokastikyontemlermauritiusornegidoguafrika AT nussaibahbegumraja yagısınmekansaldagılısındadeterministikvestokastikyontemlermauritiusornegidoguafrika |