Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway
Hydrometeorological compound events cause severe economical, societal and environmental damage, but their investigation is difficult as they occur rarely and are multivariate. Here we use 50 high-resolution climate simulations from the single model initial condition large ensemble CRCM5-LE to examin...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719301574 |
| _version_ | 1828848757992587264 |
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| author | Benjamin Poschlod Jakob Zscheischler Jana Sillmann Raul R. Wood Ralf Ludwig |
| author_facet | Benjamin Poschlod Jakob Zscheischler Jana Sillmann Raul R. Wood Ralf Ludwig |
| author_sort | Benjamin Poschlod |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Hydrometeorological compound events cause severe economical, societal and environmental damage, but their investigation is difficult as they occur rarely and are multivariate. Here we use 50 high-resolution climate simulations from the single model initial condition large ensemble CRCM5-LE to examine two such compound event types in southern Norway: (1) Heavy rainfall on saturated soil during the summer months (June, July, August, September; SES) and (2) Concurrent heavy rainfall and snowmelt (rain-on-snow; ROS). We compare present-day conditions (1980–2009) with future conditions under a high-emission scenario (2070–2099) and investigate the impact of climate change on the frequency and spatial distribution of SES and ROS events. We find that the probability of occurrence of SES events during the summer increases by 38% until 2070–2099 over the whole study area. The areas with the highest occurrence probability extend from the west coast into the interior. In contrast, the frequency of ROS is projected to decrease by 48% on average, largely driven by decreases in snowfall. Moreover, the spatial pattern of ROS are projected to change, with the most frequently affected areas shifting from the west coast towards the inner country. Our study highlights the benefits of single model large ensemble simulations for the analysis of compound events. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T22:36:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7347c538e65c42f5b31a42834fdef812 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T22:36:40Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-7347c538e65c42f5b31a42834fdef8122022-12-22T00:09:27ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472020-06-0128Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern NorwayBenjamin Poschlod0Jakob Zscheischler1Jana Sillmann2Raul R. Wood3Ralf Ludwig4Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333, Munich, Germany; Corresponding author.Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012, Bern, SwitzerlandCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Pb. 1129, Blindern, N-0318, Oslo, NorwayDepartment of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333, Munich, GermanyDepartment of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333, Munich, GermanyHydrometeorological compound events cause severe economical, societal and environmental damage, but their investigation is difficult as they occur rarely and are multivariate. Here we use 50 high-resolution climate simulations from the single model initial condition large ensemble CRCM5-LE to examine two such compound event types in southern Norway: (1) Heavy rainfall on saturated soil during the summer months (June, July, August, September; SES) and (2) Concurrent heavy rainfall and snowmelt (rain-on-snow; ROS). We compare present-day conditions (1980–2009) with future conditions under a high-emission scenario (2070–2099) and investigate the impact of climate change on the frequency and spatial distribution of SES and ROS events. We find that the probability of occurrence of SES events during the summer increases by 38% until 2070–2099 over the whole study area. The areas with the highest occurrence probability extend from the west coast into the interior. In contrast, the frequency of ROS is projected to decrease by 48% on average, largely driven by decreases in snowfall. Moreover, the spatial pattern of ROS are projected to change, with the most frequently affected areas shifting from the west coast towards the inner country. Our study highlights the benefits of single model large ensemble simulations for the analysis of compound events.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719301574Compound eventsClimate changeLarge ensembleHeavy rainfallRain-on-snowSoil saturation |
| spellingShingle | Benjamin Poschlod Jakob Zscheischler Jana Sillmann Raul R. Wood Ralf Ludwig Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway Weather and Climate Extremes Compound events Climate change Large ensemble Heavy rainfall Rain-on-snow Soil saturation |
| title | Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway |
| title_full | Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway |
| title_fullStr | Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway |
| title_short | Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway |
| title_sort | climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern norway |
| topic | Compound events Climate change Large ensemble Heavy rainfall Rain-on-snow Soil saturation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719301574 |
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