A Two-Phase Ensemble-Based Method for Predicting Learners’ Grade in MOOCs

MOOCs are online learning environments which many students use, but the success rate of online learning is low. Machine learning can be used to predict learning success based on how people learn in MOOCs. Predicting the learning performance can promote learning through various methods, such as ident...

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Main Authors: Warunya Wunnasri, Pakarat Musikawan, Chakchai So-In
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2023-01-01
Series:Applied Sciences
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/3/1492
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author Warunya Wunnasri
Pakarat Musikawan
Chakchai So-In
author_facet Warunya Wunnasri
Pakarat Musikawan
Chakchai So-In
author_sort Warunya Wunnasri
collection DOAJ
description MOOCs are online learning environments which many students use, but the success rate of online learning is low. Machine learning can be used to predict learning success based on how people learn in MOOCs. Predicting the learning performance can promote learning through various methods, such as identifying low-performance students or by grouping students together. Recent machine learning has enabled the development of predictive models, and the ensemble method can assist in reducing the variance and bias errors associated with single-machine learning. This study uses a two-phase classification model with an ensemble technique to predict the learners’ grades. In the first phase, binary classification is used, and the non-majority class is then sent to the second phase, which is multi-class classification. The new features are computed based on the distance from the class’s center. The distance between the data and the center of an overlapping cluster is calculated using silhouette score-based feature selection. Lastly, Bayesian optimization boosts the performance by fine tuning the optimal parameter set. Using data from the HMPC- and the CNPC datasets, the experiment results demonstrate that the proposed design, the two-phase ensemble-based method, outperforms the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms.
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spelling doaj.art-73c7632ff2a440bcac4765b0b12393582023-11-16T16:06:14ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172023-01-01133149210.3390/app13031492A Two-Phase Ensemble-Based Method for Predicting Learners’ Grade in MOOCsWarunya Wunnasri0Pakarat Musikawan1Chakchai So-In2Department of Computer Science, College of Computing, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, ThailandDepartment of Computer Science, College of Computing, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, ThailandDepartment of Computer Science, College of Computing, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, ThailandMOOCs are online learning environments which many students use, but the success rate of online learning is low. Machine learning can be used to predict learning success based on how people learn in MOOCs. Predicting the learning performance can promote learning through various methods, such as identifying low-performance students or by grouping students together. Recent machine learning has enabled the development of predictive models, and the ensemble method can assist in reducing the variance and bias errors associated with single-machine learning. This study uses a two-phase classification model with an ensemble technique to predict the learners’ grades. In the first phase, binary classification is used, and the non-majority class is then sent to the second phase, which is multi-class classification. The new features are computed based on the distance from the class’s center. The distance between the data and the center of an overlapping cluster is calculated using silhouette score-based feature selection. Lastly, Bayesian optimization boosts the performance by fine tuning the optimal parameter set. Using data from the HMPC- and the CNPC datasets, the experiment results demonstrate that the proposed design, the two-phase ensemble-based method, outperforms the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/3/1492learning performancegrade predictionMOOCimbalance dataensemble method
spellingShingle Warunya Wunnasri
Pakarat Musikawan
Chakchai So-In
A Two-Phase Ensemble-Based Method for Predicting Learners’ Grade in MOOCs
Applied Sciences
learning performance
grade prediction
MOOC
imbalance data
ensemble method
title A Two-Phase Ensemble-Based Method for Predicting Learners’ Grade in MOOCs
title_full A Two-Phase Ensemble-Based Method for Predicting Learners’ Grade in MOOCs
title_fullStr A Two-Phase Ensemble-Based Method for Predicting Learners’ Grade in MOOCs
title_full_unstemmed A Two-Phase Ensemble-Based Method for Predicting Learners’ Grade in MOOCs
title_short A Two-Phase Ensemble-Based Method for Predicting Learners’ Grade in MOOCs
title_sort two phase ensemble based method for predicting learners grade in moocs
topic learning performance
grade prediction
MOOC
imbalance data
ensemble method
url https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/3/1492
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