Projections of Freshwater Use in the United States Under Climate Change
Abstract Water use in the United States reached its lowest level in 2015 in at least four decades. National trends, however, mask local challenges throughout the U.S. In some places, decreases in surface water use were more than offset by increases in groundwater use, leading to net increases in tot...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002222 |
| _version_ | 1797871579340734464 |
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| author | Travis Warziniack Mazdak Arabi Thomas C. Brown Pamela Froemke Rohini Ghosh Shaunie Rasmussen Ryan Swartzentruber |
| author_facet | Travis Warziniack Mazdak Arabi Thomas C. Brown Pamela Froemke Rohini Ghosh Shaunie Rasmussen Ryan Swartzentruber |
| author_sort | Travis Warziniack |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Water use in the United States reached its lowest level in 2015 in at least four decades. National trends, however, mask local challenges throughout the U.S. In some places, decreases in surface water use were more than offset by increases in groundwater use, leading to net increases in total withdrawals. Other places have seen increasing rates of water shortages caused by mixes of socioeconomic and climate forces. This study examines recent trends in freshwater use and makes projections in future freshwater use over the next 50 years. Projections are based on socioeconomic and climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Scenarios are paired with five climate models from the downscaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA). We find total consumptive water use will decrease by as much as 8% under the best‐case scenario but increase by as much as 235% under the worst‐case scenario. Results depend on both climate and socioeconomic changes, but because agriculture is the dominant use of water in most regions, climate change impacts overwhelm all other factors under hot and dry futures. For the wetter climate models, water use decreases even under the highest emissions levels and highest population growth rates. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:45:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-73c7ee75249f4b8bb95e4a5057209339 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:45:03Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-73c7ee75249f4b8bb95e4a50572093392023-03-13T21:56:24ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772022-02-01102n/an/a10.1029/2021EF002222Projections of Freshwater Use in the United States Under Climate ChangeTravis Warziniack0Mazdak Arabi1Thomas C. Brown2Pamela Froemke3Rohini Ghosh4Shaunie Rasmussen5Ryan Swartzentruber6Rocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service Fort Collins CO USADepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USARocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service Fort Collins CO USARocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service Fort Collins CO USAPacifiCorp Portland OR USADepartment of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USADepartment of Economics University of Tennessee Knoxville TN USAAbstract Water use in the United States reached its lowest level in 2015 in at least four decades. National trends, however, mask local challenges throughout the U.S. In some places, decreases in surface water use were more than offset by increases in groundwater use, leading to net increases in total withdrawals. Other places have seen increasing rates of water shortages caused by mixes of socioeconomic and climate forces. This study examines recent trends in freshwater use and makes projections in future freshwater use over the next 50 years. Projections are based on socioeconomic and climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Scenarios are paired with five climate models from the downscaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA). We find total consumptive water use will decrease by as much as 8% under the best‐case scenario but increase by as much as 235% under the worst‐case scenario. Results depend on both climate and socioeconomic changes, but because agriculture is the dominant use of water in most regions, climate change impacts overwhelm all other factors under hot and dry futures. For the wetter climate models, water use decreases even under the highest emissions levels and highest population growth rates.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002222climate changewater useirrigationhousehold water use |
| spellingShingle | Travis Warziniack Mazdak Arabi Thomas C. Brown Pamela Froemke Rohini Ghosh Shaunie Rasmussen Ryan Swartzentruber Projections of Freshwater Use in the United States Under Climate Change Earth's Future climate change water use irrigation household water use |
| title | Projections of Freshwater Use in the United States Under Climate Change |
| title_full | Projections of Freshwater Use in the United States Under Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | Projections of Freshwater Use in the United States Under Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of Freshwater Use in the United States Under Climate Change |
| title_short | Projections of Freshwater Use in the United States Under Climate Change |
| title_sort | projections of freshwater use in the united states under climate change |
| topic | climate change water use irrigation household water use |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002222 |
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