Climate-Streamflow Relationship and Consequences of Its Instability in Large Rivers of Pakistan: An Elasticity Perspective
Precipitation elasticity provides a basic estimate of the sensitivity of long-term streamflow to changes in long-term precipitation, and it is especially useful as the first assessment of climate change impact in land and water resource projects. This study estimated and compared the precipitation e...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2022-06-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/13/2033 |
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| author | Zahoor Khan Fayaz Ahmad Khan Afed Ullah Khan Irshad Hussain Asif Khan Liaqat Ali Shah Jehanzeb Khan Yasir Irfan Badrashi Paweł Kamiński Artur Dyczko Kazimierz Różkowski |
| author_facet | Zahoor Khan Fayaz Ahmad Khan Afed Ullah Khan Irshad Hussain Asif Khan Liaqat Ali Shah Jehanzeb Khan Yasir Irfan Badrashi Paweł Kamiński Artur Dyczko Kazimierz Różkowski |
| author_sort | Zahoor Khan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Precipitation elasticity provides a basic estimate of the sensitivity of long-term streamflow to changes in long-term precipitation, and it is especially useful as the first assessment of climate change impact in land and water resource projects. This study estimated and compared the precipitation elasticity (ε<sub>p</sub>) of streamflow in 86 catchments within Pakistan over 50 major rivers using three widely used analytical models: bivariate nonparametric (NP) estimator, multivariate NP analysis, and multivariate double logarithm (DL) model. All the three models gave similar values of elasticity in the range of 0.1–3.5 for over 70–75% of the catchments. This signifies that a 1% change in the annual mean precipitation compared to the long-term historic mean annual precipitation will amplify the streamflow by 0.1–3.5%. In addition, the results suggested that elasticity estimation of streamflow sensitivity using the multivariate DL model is more reliable and realistic. Precipitation elasticity of streamflow is observed high at altitudes ranging between 250 m and 1000 m while the longitudinal and latitudinal pattern of ε<sub>p</sub> shows higher values in the range of 70–75 and 32–36 decimal degrees, respectively. The ε<sub>p</sub> values were found to have a direct relationship with the mean annual precipitation and an inverse relationship with the catchment areas. Likewise, high ε<sub>p</sub> values were noticed in areas where the mean annual temperature ranges between 15 and 24 °C. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:50:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-73c91d38b7aa4e339c9cfa4f59da025e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:50:32Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-73c91d38b7aa4e339c9cfa4f59da025e2023-12-03T14:27:49ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-06-011413203310.3390/w14132033Climate-Streamflow Relationship and Consequences of Its Instability in Large Rivers of Pakistan: An Elasticity PerspectiveZahoor Khan0Fayaz Ahmad Khan1Afed Ullah Khan2Irshad Hussain3Asif Khan4Liaqat Ali Shah5Jehanzeb Khan6Yasir Irfan Badrashi7Paweł Kamiński8Artur Dyczko9Kazimierz Różkowski10Department of Civil Engineering, Abasyn University Peshawar, Peshawar 25000, PakistanNational Institute of Urban Infrastructure Planning, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar, Peshawar 25000, PakistanDepartment of Civil Engineering, Campus III-Bannu, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar, Bannu 28100, PakistanFaculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar, Peshawar 25000, PakistanDepartment of Civil Engineering, Jalozai Campus, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar, Jalozai, Nowshera 24240, PakistanDepartment of Civil Engineering, Campus III-Bannu, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar, Bannu 28100, PakistanHigher Education Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar 25160, PakistanDepartment of Civil Engineering, Campus III-Bannu, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar, Bannu 28100, PakistanFaculty of Civil Engineering and Resource Management, AGH University of Science and Technology, Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Kraków, PolandMineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, J. Wybickiego 7a, 31-261 Kraków, PolandFaculty of Civil Engineering and Resource Management, AGH University of Science and Technology, Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Kraków, PolandPrecipitation elasticity provides a basic estimate of the sensitivity of long-term streamflow to changes in long-term precipitation, and it is especially useful as the first assessment of climate change impact in land and water resource projects. This study estimated and compared the precipitation elasticity (ε<sub>p</sub>) of streamflow in 86 catchments within Pakistan over 50 major rivers using three widely used analytical models: bivariate nonparametric (NP) estimator, multivariate NP analysis, and multivariate double logarithm (DL) model. All the three models gave similar values of elasticity in the range of 0.1–3.5 for over 70–75% of the catchments. This signifies that a 1% change in the annual mean precipitation compared to the long-term historic mean annual precipitation will amplify the streamflow by 0.1–3.5%. In addition, the results suggested that elasticity estimation of streamflow sensitivity using the multivariate DL model is more reliable and realistic. Precipitation elasticity of streamflow is observed high at altitudes ranging between 250 m and 1000 m while the longitudinal and latitudinal pattern of ε<sub>p</sub> shows higher values in the range of 70–75 and 32–36 decimal degrees, respectively. The ε<sub>p</sub> values were found to have a direct relationship with the mean annual precipitation and an inverse relationship with the catchment areas. Likewise, high ε<sub>p</sub> values were noticed in areas where the mean annual temperature ranges between 15 and 24 °C.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/13/2033climate changeelasticitystreamflowprecipitationtemperaturewater management |
| spellingShingle | Zahoor Khan Fayaz Ahmad Khan Afed Ullah Khan Irshad Hussain Asif Khan Liaqat Ali Shah Jehanzeb Khan Yasir Irfan Badrashi Paweł Kamiński Artur Dyczko Kazimierz Różkowski Climate-Streamflow Relationship and Consequences of Its Instability in Large Rivers of Pakistan: An Elasticity Perspective Water climate change elasticity streamflow precipitation temperature water management |
| title | Climate-Streamflow Relationship and Consequences of Its Instability in Large Rivers of Pakistan: An Elasticity Perspective |
| title_full | Climate-Streamflow Relationship and Consequences of Its Instability in Large Rivers of Pakistan: An Elasticity Perspective |
| title_fullStr | Climate-Streamflow Relationship and Consequences of Its Instability in Large Rivers of Pakistan: An Elasticity Perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate-Streamflow Relationship and Consequences of Its Instability in Large Rivers of Pakistan: An Elasticity Perspective |
| title_short | Climate-Streamflow Relationship and Consequences of Its Instability in Large Rivers of Pakistan: An Elasticity Perspective |
| title_sort | climate streamflow relationship and consequences of its instability in large rivers of pakistan an elasticity perspective |
| topic | climate change elasticity streamflow precipitation temperature water management |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/13/2033 |
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