Examining the role of person-to-person transmission during a verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli outbreak in Ontario, Canada
Abstract Objective Person-to-person transmission can occur during outbreaks of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), however the impact of this transmission route is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the role of person-to-person transmission during a VTEC outbreak, and how targeting...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-05-01
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| Series: | BMC Research Notes |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-022-06075-3 |
| _version_ | 1817981041465360384 |
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| author | Roksolana Hovdey Jan M. Sargeant David N. Fisman Amy L. Greer |
| author_facet | Roksolana Hovdey Jan M. Sargeant David N. Fisman Amy L. Greer |
| author_sort | Roksolana Hovdey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Objective Person-to-person transmission can occur during outbreaks of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), however the impact of this transmission route is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the role of person-to-person transmission during a VTEC outbreak, and how targeting this route may reduce outbreak size. A deterministic compartmental model describing a VTEC outbreak was constructed and fit to data from a 2008 outbreak in Ontario, Canada. Using the best-fit model, simulations were run to calculate the: reduction in transmission rate after implementing interventions, proportion of cases infected through both transmission routes, and number of cases prevented by interventions. Latin hypercube sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the sensitivity of the outbreak size to the model parameters. Results Based on the best-fit model, ~ 14.25% of the cases likely arose due to person-to-person transmission. Interventions reduced this transmission rate by ~ 73%, causing a reduction in outbreak size of ~ 17% (47 cases). Sensitivity analysis showed that the model was highly sensitive to changes in all parameters of the model. The model demonstrates that person-to-person could be an important transmission route during VTEC outbreaks. Targeting this route of transmission through hand hygiene and work exclusions could reduce the final outbreak size. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T23:00:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-74310af8cc3b4033ba807411b5b7898d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1756-0500 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T23:00:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Research Notes |
| spelling | doaj.art-74310af8cc3b4033ba807411b5b7898d2022-12-22T02:25:51ZengBMCBMC Research Notes1756-05002022-05-011511710.1186/s13104-022-06075-3Examining the role of person-to-person transmission during a verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli outbreak in Ontario, CanadaRoksolana Hovdey0Jan M. Sargeant1David N. Fisman2Amy L. Greer3Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of GuelphDepartment of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of GuelphDepartment of Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of TorontoDepartment of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of GuelphAbstract Objective Person-to-person transmission can occur during outbreaks of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), however the impact of this transmission route is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the role of person-to-person transmission during a VTEC outbreak, and how targeting this route may reduce outbreak size. A deterministic compartmental model describing a VTEC outbreak was constructed and fit to data from a 2008 outbreak in Ontario, Canada. Using the best-fit model, simulations were run to calculate the: reduction in transmission rate after implementing interventions, proportion of cases infected through both transmission routes, and number of cases prevented by interventions. Latin hypercube sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the sensitivity of the outbreak size to the model parameters. Results Based on the best-fit model, ~ 14.25% of the cases likely arose due to person-to-person transmission. Interventions reduced this transmission rate by ~ 73%, causing a reduction in outbreak size of ~ 17% (47 cases). Sensitivity analysis showed that the model was highly sensitive to changes in all parameters of the model. The model demonstrates that person-to-person could be an important transmission route during VTEC outbreaks. Targeting this route of transmission through hand hygiene and work exclusions could reduce the final outbreak size.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-022-06075-3Disease modellingDisease transmissionEnteric infectionsEscherichia coliModellingMulti-chain transmission |
| spellingShingle | Roksolana Hovdey Jan M. Sargeant David N. Fisman Amy L. Greer Examining the role of person-to-person transmission during a verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli outbreak in Ontario, Canada BMC Research Notes Disease modelling Disease transmission Enteric infections Escherichia coli Modelling Multi-chain transmission |
| title | Examining the role of person-to-person transmission during a verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli outbreak in Ontario, Canada |
| title_full | Examining the role of person-to-person transmission during a verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli outbreak in Ontario, Canada |
| title_fullStr | Examining the role of person-to-person transmission during a verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli outbreak in Ontario, Canada |
| title_full_unstemmed | Examining the role of person-to-person transmission during a verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli outbreak in Ontario, Canada |
| title_short | Examining the role of person-to-person transmission during a verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli outbreak in Ontario, Canada |
| title_sort | examining the role of person to person transmission during a verocytotoxigenic escherichia coli outbreak in ontario canada |
| topic | Disease modelling Disease transmission Enteric infections Escherichia coli Modelling Multi-chain transmission |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-022-06075-3 |
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