Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for <i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues
The introduction of Douglas-fir [<i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco] in Europe has been one of the most important and extensive silvicultural experiments since the 1850s. This success was mainly supported by the species’ wide genome and phenotypic plasticity even if the genetic...
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MDPI AG
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Plants |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/10/2/215 |
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| author | Maurizio Marchi Claudia Cocozza |
| author_facet | Maurizio Marchi Claudia Cocozza |
| author_sort | Maurizio Marchi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The introduction of Douglas-fir [<i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco] in Europe has been one of the most important and extensive silvicultural experiments since the 1850s. This success was mainly supported by the species’ wide genome and phenotypic plasticity even if the genetic origin of seeds used for plantations is nowadays often unknown. This is especially true for all the stands planted before the IUFRO experimentation in the 1960s. In this paper, a methodology to estimate the Douglas-fir provenances currently growing in Italy is proposed. The raw data from the last Italian National Forest Inventory were combined with literature information to obtain the current spatial distribution of the species in the country representing its successful introduction. Afterwards, a random forest classification model was run using downscaled climatic data as predictors and the classification scheme adopted in previous research studies in the Pacific North West of America. The analysis highlighted good matching between the native and the introduction range in Italy. Coastal provenances from British Columbia and the dry coast of Washington were detected as the most likely seed sources, covering 63.4% and 33.8% of the current distribution of the species in the country, respectively. Interior provenances and those from the dry coast of Oregon were also represented but limited to very few cases. The extension of the model on future scenarios predicted a gradual shift in suitable provenances with the dry coast of Oregon in the mid-term (2050s) and afterwards California (2080s) being highlighted as possible new seed sources. However, only further analysis with genetic markers and molecular methods will be able to confirm the proposed scenarios. A validation of the genotypes currently available in Italy will be mandatory as well as their regeneration processes (i.e., adaptation), which may also diverge from those occurring in the native range due to a different environmental pressure. This new information will also add important knowledge, allowing a refinement of the proposed modeling framework for a better support for forest managers. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:52:31Z |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:52:31Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
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| record_format | Article |
| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj.art-74d2745d01414de781fb0ef6857434ed2023-12-03T14:25:32ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472021-01-0110221510.3390/plants10020215Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for <i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic AnaloguesMaurizio Marchi0Claudia Cocozza1CNR—Institute of Biosciences and BioResources (IBBR), Via Madonna del Piano 10, I-50019 Sesto Fiorentino (Florence), ItalyDepartment of Science and Technology in Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry, University of Florence, Via S. Bonaventura 13, I-50145 Florence, ItalyThe introduction of Douglas-fir [<i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco] in Europe has been one of the most important and extensive silvicultural experiments since the 1850s. This success was mainly supported by the species’ wide genome and phenotypic plasticity even if the genetic origin of seeds used for plantations is nowadays often unknown. This is especially true for all the stands planted before the IUFRO experimentation in the 1960s. In this paper, a methodology to estimate the Douglas-fir provenances currently growing in Italy is proposed. The raw data from the last Italian National Forest Inventory were combined with literature information to obtain the current spatial distribution of the species in the country representing its successful introduction. Afterwards, a random forest classification model was run using downscaled climatic data as predictors and the classification scheme adopted in previous research studies in the Pacific North West of America. The analysis highlighted good matching between the native and the introduction range in Italy. Coastal provenances from British Columbia and the dry coast of Washington were detected as the most likely seed sources, covering 63.4% and 33.8% of the current distribution of the species in the country, respectively. Interior provenances and those from the dry coast of Oregon were also represented but limited to very few cases. The extension of the model on future scenarios predicted a gradual shift in suitable provenances with the dry coast of Oregon in the mid-term (2050s) and afterwards California (2080s) being highlighted as possible new seed sources. However, only further analysis with genetic markers and molecular methods will be able to confirm the proposed scenarios. A validation of the genotypes currently available in Italy will be mandatory as well as their regeneration processes (i.e., adaptation), which may also diverge from those occurring in the native range due to a different environmental pressure. This new information will also add important knowledge, allowing a refinement of the proposed modeling framework for a better support for forest managers.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/10/2/215forest managementClimateDTforest ecologyecological modelingnon-native tree speciesclimatic normal |
| spellingShingle | Maurizio Marchi Claudia Cocozza Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for <i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues Plants forest management ClimateDT forest ecology ecological modeling non-native tree species climatic normal |
| title | Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for <i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues |
| title_full | Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for <i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for <i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for <i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues |
| title_short | Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for <i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues |
| title_sort | probabilistic provenance detection and management pathways for i pseudotsuga menziesii i mirb franco in italy using climatic analogues |
| topic | forest management ClimateDT forest ecology ecological modeling non-native tree species climatic normal |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/10/2/215 |
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