On the psychology of self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended actions
When people predict their future behavior, they tend to place too much weight on their current intentions, which produces an optimistic bias for behaviors associated with currently strong intentions. More realistic self-predictions require greater sensitivity to situational barriers, such as obstacl...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2014-05-01
|
| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/14/14130/jdm14130.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797723762736496640 |
|---|---|
| author | Connie S. K. Poon Derek J. Koehler Roger Buehler |
| author_facet | Connie S. K. Poon Derek J. Koehler Roger Buehler |
| author_sort | Connie S. K. Poon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | When people predict
their future behavior, they tend to place too much weight on their current
intentions, which produces an optimistic bias for behaviors associated with
currently strong intentions. More realistic self-predictions require greater
sensitivity to situational barriers, such as obstacles or competing demands,
that may interfere with the translation of current intentions into future
behavior. We consider three reasons why people may not adjust sufficiently for
such barriers. First, self-predictions may focus exclusively on current
intentions, ignoring potential barriers altogether. We test this possibility,
in three studies, with manipulations that draw greater attention to barriers.
Second, barriers may be discounted in the self-prediction process. We test this
possibility by comparing prospective and retrospective ratings of the impact of
barriers on the target behavior. Neither possibility was supported in these
tests, or in a further test examining whether an optimally weighted statistical
model could improve on the accuracy of self-predictions by placing greater
weight on anticipated situational barriers. Instead, the evidence supports a
third possibility: Even when they acknowledge that situational factors can
affect the likelihood of carrying out an intended behavior, people do not
adequately moderate the weight placed on their current intentions when
predicting their future behavior. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T10:07:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-74d34513a448463f9f83fc16ea3cbb98 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T10:07:23Z |
| publishDate | 2014-05-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-74d34513a448463f9f83fc16ea3cbb982023-09-02T11:11:00ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752014-05-0193207225On the psychology of self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended actionsConnie S. K. PoonDerek J. KoehlerRoger BuehlerWhen people predict their future behavior, they tend to place too much weight on their current intentions, which produces an optimistic bias for behaviors associated with currently strong intentions. More realistic self-predictions require greater sensitivity to situational barriers, such as obstacles or competing demands, that may interfere with the translation of current intentions into future behavior. We consider three reasons why people may not adjust sufficiently for such barriers. First, self-predictions may focus exclusively on current intentions, ignoring potential barriers altogether. We test this possibility, in three studies, with manipulations that draw greater attention to barriers. Second, barriers may be discounted in the self-prediction process. We test this possibility by comparing prospective and retrospective ratings of the impact of barriers on the target behavior. Neither possibility was supported in these tests, or in a further test examining whether an optimally weighted statistical model could improve on the accuracy of self-predictions by placing greater weight on anticipated situational barriers. Instead, the evidence supports a third possibility: Even when they acknowledge that situational factors can affect the likelihood of carrying out an intended behavior, people do not adequately moderate the weight placed on their current intentions when predicting their future behavior.http://journal.sjdm.org/14/14130/jdm14130.pdfself-prediction intention optimistic bias.NAKeywords |
| spellingShingle | Connie S. K. Poon Derek J. Koehler Roger Buehler On the psychology of self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended actions Judgment and Decision Making self-prediction intention optimistic bias.NAKeywords |
| title | On the psychology of
self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended
actions |
| title_full | On the psychology of
self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended
actions |
| title_fullStr | On the psychology of
self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended
actions |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the psychology of
self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended
actions |
| title_short | On the psychology of
self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended
actions |
| title_sort | on the psychology of self prediction consideration of situational barriers to intended actions |
| topic | self-prediction intention optimistic bias.NAKeywords |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/14/14130/jdm14130.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT connieskpoon onthepsychologyofselfpredictionconsiderationofsituationalbarrierstointendedactions AT derekjkoehler onthepsychologyofselfpredictionconsiderationofsituationalbarrierstointendedactions AT rogerbuehler onthepsychologyofselfpredictionconsiderationofsituationalbarrierstointendedactions |