Dynamic modelling and optimal control analysis of a fractional order chikungunya disease model with temperature effects
Approximately 1.3 billion inhabitants in 94 countries are estimated to be at risk of chikungunya virus infection. A mechanistic compartmental model based on fractional calculus, the Caputo derivative has been proposed to evaluate the effects of temperature and multiple disease control measures (larv...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Results in Control and Optimization |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666720723000085 |
| _version_ | 1811157880520310784 |
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| author | Eva Lusekelo Mlyashimbi Helikumi Dmitry Kuznetsov Steady Mushayabasa |
| author_facet | Eva Lusekelo Mlyashimbi Helikumi Dmitry Kuznetsov Steady Mushayabasa |
| author_sort | Eva Lusekelo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Approximately 1.3 billion inhabitants in 94 countries are estimated to be at risk of chikungunya virus infection. A mechanistic compartmental model based on fractional calculus, the Caputo derivative has been proposed to evaluate the effects of temperature and multiple disease control measures (larvicides use, insecticides and physical barriers) during an outbreak. The proposed model was calibrated based on data from literature and validated with daily chikungunya fever cases reported at Kadmat primary health centre, India. The transmission potential of the disease was examined. Sensitive analyses were conducted through computing partial rank correlation coefficients. Memory effects which are often neglected when mechanistic models are used to model the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, were found to have a significant effect on the dynamics of chikungunya. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T05:14:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-74d4a46c2ff445cc90e1f4fd81bdd8a7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-7207 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T05:14:57Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Results in Control and Optimization |
| spelling | doaj.art-74d4a46c2ff445cc90e1f4fd81bdd8a72023-03-09T04:13:53ZengElsevierResults in Control and Optimization2666-72072023-03-0110100206Dynamic modelling and optimal control analysis of a fractional order chikungunya disease model with temperature effectsEva Lusekelo0Mlyashimbi Helikumi1Dmitry Kuznetsov2Steady Mushayabasa3School of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania; Department of Mathematics, College of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, University of Dodoma, Dodoma, TanzaniaMbeya University of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science and Technical Education, P.O. Box 131, Mbeya, TanzaniaSchool of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, TanzaniaUniversity of Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics and Computational Sciences, P.O. Box MP 167, 630 Churchill Avenue, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe; Corresponding author.Approximately 1.3 billion inhabitants in 94 countries are estimated to be at risk of chikungunya virus infection. A mechanistic compartmental model based on fractional calculus, the Caputo derivative has been proposed to evaluate the effects of temperature and multiple disease control measures (larvicides use, insecticides and physical barriers) during an outbreak. The proposed model was calibrated based on data from literature and validated with daily chikungunya fever cases reported at Kadmat primary health centre, India. The transmission potential of the disease was examined. Sensitive analyses were conducted through computing partial rank correlation coefficients. Memory effects which are often neglected when mechanistic models are used to model the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, were found to have a significant effect on the dynamics of chikungunya.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666720723000085Chikungunya feverMathematical modelMemory effectsTemperatureControl strategies |
| spellingShingle | Eva Lusekelo Mlyashimbi Helikumi Dmitry Kuznetsov Steady Mushayabasa Dynamic modelling and optimal control analysis of a fractional order chikungunya disease model with temperature effects Results in Control and Optimization Chikungunya fever Mathematical model Memory effects Temperature Control strategies |
| title | Dynamic modelling and optimal control analysis of a fractional order chikungunya disease model with temperature effects |
| title_full | Dynamic modelling and optimal control analysis of a fractional order chikungunya disease model with temperature effects |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic modelling and optimal control analysis of a fractional order chikungunya disease model with temperature effects |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic modelling and optimal control analysis of a fractional order chikungunya disease model with temperature effects |
| title_short | Dynamic modelling and optimal control analysis of a fractional order chikungunya disease model with temperature effects |
| title_sort | dynamic modelling and optimal control analysis of a fractional order chikungunya disease model with temperature effects |
| topic | Chikungunya fever Mathematical model Memory effects Temperature Control strategies |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666720723000085 |
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