Spatial-temporal transformer network for multi-year ENSO prediction
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a quasi-periodic climate type that occurs near the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Extreme periods of this climate type can cause terrible weather and climate anomalies on a global scale. Therefore, it is critical to accurately, quickly, and effectively predict t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1143499/full |
| _version_ | 1827991373227229184 |
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| author | Dan Song Xinqi Su Wenhui Li Zhengya Sun Tongwei Ren Wen Liu An-An Liu |
| author_facet | Dan Song Xinqi Su Wenhui Li Zhengya Sun Tongwei Ren Wen Liu An-An Liu |
| author_sort | Dan Song |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a quasi-periodic climate type that occurs near the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Extreme periods of this climate type can cause terrible weather and climate anomalies on a global scale. Therefore, it is critical to accurately, quickly, and effectively predict the occurrence of ENSO events. Most existing research methods rely on the powerful data-fitting capability of deep learning which does not fully consider the spatio-temporal evolution of ENSO and its quasi-periodic character, resulting in neural networks with complex structures but a poor prediction. Moreover, due to the large magnitude of ocean climate variability over long intervals, they also ignored nearby prediction results when predicting the Niño 3.4 index for the next month, which led to large errors. To solve these problem, we propose a spatio-temporal transformer network to model the inherent characteristics of the sea surface temperature anomaly map and heat content anomaly map along with the changes in space and time by designing an effective attention mechanism, and innovatively incorporate temporal index into the feature learning procedure to model the influence of seasonal variation on the prediction of the ENSO phenomenon. More importantly, to better conduct long-term prediction, we propose an effective recurrent prediction strategy using previous prediction as prior knowledge to enhance the reliability of long-term prediction. Extensive experimental results show that our model can provide an 18-month valid ENSO prediction, which validates the effectiveness of our method. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:49:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-74df54149a804441844d5bbf3c7b6afd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:49:46Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-74df54149a804441844d5bbf3c7b6afd2023-03-13T12:27:39ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452023-03-011010.3389/fmars.2023.11434991143499Spatial-temporal transformer network for multi-year ENSO predictionDan Song0Xinqi Su1Wenhui Li2Zhengya Sun3Tongwei Ren4Wen Liu5An-An Liu6School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, ChinaSchool of Electrical and Information Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, ChinaSchool of Electrical and Information Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, ChinaInstitute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing, ChinaSchool of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Electrical and Information Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, ChinaThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a quasi-periodic climate type that occurs near the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Extreme periods of this climate type can cause terrible weather and climate anomalies on a global scale. Therefore, it is critical to accurately, quickly, and effectively predict the occurrence of ENSO events. Most existing research methods rely on the powerful data-fitting capability of deep learning which does not fully consider the spatio-temporal evolution of ENSO and its quasi-periodic character, resulting in neural networks with complex structures but a poor prediction. Moreover, due to the large magnitude of ocean climate variability over long intervals, they also ignored nearby prediction results when predicting the Niño 3.4 index for the next month, which led to large errors. To solve these problem, we propose a spatio-temporal transformer network to model the inherent characteristics of the sea surface temperature anomaly map and heat content anomaly map along with the changes in space and time by designing an effective attention mechanism, and innovatively incorporate temporal index into the feature learning procedure to model the influence of seasonal variation on the prediction of the ENSO phenomenon. More importantly, to better conduct long-term prediction, we propose an effective recurrent prediction strategy using previous prediction as prior knowledge to enhance the reliability of long-term prediction. Extensive experimental results show that our model can provide an 18-month valid ENSO prediction, which validates the effectiveness of our method.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1143499/fullEI Niño southern oscillationlong-term predictionspatio-temporal modelingtransformerdeep learning |
| spellingShingle | Dan Song Xinqi Su Wenhui Li Zhengya Sun Tongwei Ren Wen Liu An-An Liu Spatial-temporal transformer network for multi-year ENSO prediction Frontiers in Marine Science EI Niño southern oscillation long-term prediction spatio-temporal modeling transformer deep learning |
| title | Spatial-temporal transformer network for multi-year ENSO prediction |
| title_full | Spatial-temporal transformer network for multi-year ENSO prediction |
| title_fullStr | Spatial-temporal transformer network for multi-year ENSO prediction |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial-temporal transformer network for multi-year ENSO prediction |
| title_short | Spatial-temporal transformer network for multi-year ENSO prediction |
| title_sort | spatial temporal transformer network for multi year enso prediction |
| topic | EI Niño southern oscillation long-term prediction spatio-temporal modeling transformer deep learning |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1143499/full |
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