Future Generation Adequacy of the Hungarian Power System with Increasing Share of Res
Power generation sector is expected to undergo substantial changes in Hungary in the next years due to the decommissioning of several large units reaching the end of their lifetimes in parallel to the projected increase of renewable electricity generating capacity. In addition to the traditionally w...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SDEWES Centre
2015-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://www.sdewes.org/jsdewes/pi2015.03.0013
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| _version_ | 1818643030204219392 |
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| author | Agnes Gerse |
| author_facet | Agnes Gerse |
| author_sort | Agnes Gerse |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Power generation sector is expected to undergo substantial changes in Hungary in the next years due to the decommissioning of several large units reaching the end of their lifetimes in parallel to the projected increase of renewable electricity generating capacity. In addition to the traditionally widely used deterministic adequacy assessment methods, a probabilistic approach has a great importance in case of technologies with different capacity credits. An analytical country-specific adequacy assessment model enabling the probabilistic modelling of wind power plants was developed and applied to generating capacity forecasts for Hungary. Model parameters were estimated using multi-annual production, plant availability, and hourly system demand data. Adequacy indicators obtained from the model clearly show increasing reliance on imported electricity in the absence of investments in new generating capacity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T23:52:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-754b13add4d84e3790de66886685795e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1848-9257 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T23:52:28Z |
| publishDate | 2015-06-01 |
| publisher | SDEWES Centre |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems |
| spelling | doaj.art-754b13add4d84e3790de66886685795e2022-12-21T22:11:18ZengSDEWES CentreJournal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems1848-92572015-06-013216317310.13044/j.sdewes.2015.03.001300075Future Generation Adequacy of the Hungarian Power System with Increasing Share of ResAgnes Gerse0 MAVIR ZRt., Hungary Power generation sector is expected to undergo substantial changes in Hungary in the next years due to the decommissioning of several large units reaching the end of their lifetimes in parallel to the projected increase of renewable electricity generating capacity. In addition to the traditionally widely used deterministic adequacy assessment methods, a probabilistic approach has a great importance in case of technologies with different capacity credits. An analytical country-specific adequacy assessment model enabling the probabilistic modelling of wind power plants was developed and applied to generating capacity forecasts for Hungary. Model parameters were estimated using multi-annual production, plant availability, and hourly system demand data. Adequacy indicators obtained from the model clearly show increasing reliance on imported electricity in the absence of investments in new generating capacity. http://www.sdewes.org/jsdewes/pi2015.03.0013 Generation Adequacy AssessmentSecurity of SupplyPower GenerationRenewable Energy Sources (RES) |
| spellingShingle | Agnes Gerse Future Generation Adequacy of the Hungarian Power System with Increasing Share of Res Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems Generation Adequacy Assessment Security of Supply Power Generation Renewable Energy Sources (RES) |
| title | Future Generation Adequacy of the Hungarian Power System with Increasing Share of Res |
| title_full | Future Generation Adequacy of the Hungarian Power System with Increasing Share of Res |
| title_fullStr | Future Generation Adequacy of the Hungarian Power System with Increasing Share of Res |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Generation Adequacy of the Hungarian Power System with Increasing Share of Res |
| title_short | Future Generation Adequacy of the Hungarian Power System with Increasing Share of Res |
| title_sort | future generation adequacy of the hungarian power system with increasing share of res |
| topic | Generation Adequacy Assessment Security of Supply Power Generation Renewable Energy Sources (RES) |
| url |
http://www.sdewes.org/jsdewes/pi2015.03.0013
|
| work_keys_str_mv | AT agnesgerse futuregenerationadequacyofthehungarianpowersystemwithincreasingshareofres |