| Summary: | The cause of large areas of treeless Sedgeland and Scrub communities in western Tasmania, one of the wettest regions of Australia, has long puzzled ecologists, given the climatic suitability for temperate <i>Eucalyptus</i> and rainforests. A pervasive theory, known as the ecological drift model, is that landscape fires have created a dynamic mosaic of fire-adapted and fire-sensitive vegetation. A contrary view, known as the fire cycle model, asserts that fire patterns are a consequence, not a cause, of the mosaics, which are edaphically determined. We leveraged the opportunity presented by a large wildfire that occurred in a Sedgeland tract surrounded by <i>Eucalyptus</i> forest in the Huon Valley in 2019 to help discriminate between these competing models. Specifically, we sought to determine whether there was any evidence that the Sedgeland was becoming infilled with Scrub prior to the 2019 fire, and whether the fire caused the Scrub community to convert to Sedgeland. A field survey was used to assess the mortality of shrubs and their regeneration following the 2019 fire, and we used dendrochronology to determine the age of the fire-killed shrubs. We also used historical aerial photography since the 1980s to map fire scars and the distribution of Sedgeland and Scrub. We found that fire killed most shrubs in the Sedgeland and Scrub communities and initiated a cohort of shrub regeneration. Dendrochronological analysis of the fire-killed shrubs revealed that most were established approximately 40 years ago, following a fire that is apparent from aerial photography and most likely occurred around 1983. An analysis of aerial photography revealed that since 1980, the distribution of the Scrub community has remained stable, although the density of shrubs declined following the 1983 fire. The recovery of the burned Scrub areas in 1983 and the rapid regeneration of the shrubs following the 2019 fire is more consistent with the fire cycle model than the ecological drift model. These findings concord with the demonstrated stability of the <i>Eucalyptus</i> forest boundary at this site revealed by a separate study. The slow growth of the shrubs cautions against frequently burning Sedgelands, because it could cause the collapse of shrub populations by killing the immature cohort initiated by fire.
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