Investigating the influences of climate change on drought in a small data-scarce river catchment
This study focuses on the influences of climate change on drought characteristics in the small, data-scarce Ndembera River catchment in Tanzania, using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets and six regional climate models (RCMs) of the CORDEX-Africa framework. The RCM simulations were validated...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
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| Online Access: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/14/9/3293 |
| _version_ | 1797202749069197312 |
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| author | Frank Joseph Wambura |
| author_facet | Frank Joseph Wambura |
| author_sort | Frank Joseph Wambura |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study focuses on the influences of climate change on drought characteristics in the small, data-scarce Ndembera River catchment in Tanzania, using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets and six regional climate models (RCMs) of the CORDEX-Africa framework. The RCM simulations were validated against the CRU data, and their optimistic (RCP 2.6) and worst-case (RCP 8.5) scenarios were used in estimating ensemble simulations using the random forest regression. The ensemble simulations were used to compute standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices, which characterized drought for the near-future, mid-future, and far-future. Finally, patterns and trends of changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to those in drought characteristics. The findings revealed substantial uncertainty in RCMs, although their ensembles fairly reproduced the historical climate in the catchment. Under the optimistic scenario, a slight decrease in precipitation and a small increase in maximum temperature are projected. Consequently, drought intensity is projected to rise just slightly but remain moderate throughout this century. These changes are expected to be more pronounced during the mid-future than the far-future. Under the worst-case scenario, the projected changes are expected to be more pronounced, especially during the end of the century. These sorts of insights are vital for enhancing adaptations to climate change in catchments.
HIGHLIGHTS
Investigation of the influences of climate change on drought in a small catchment.;
Gridded observational data overcome the scarcity of historical data in the catchment.;
Regional climate models fairly simulate the historical climate in the catchment.;
Temperature change has longer and more direct influences on drought in the catchment.;
Future climate change might not change the current moderate drought in the catchment.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T18:48:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-75c0a261975d49a5a64e85eb6a325a8c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:08:23Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-75c0a261975d49a5a64e85eb6a325a8c2024-04-17T08:33:16ZengIWA PublishingJournal of Water and Climate Change2040-22442408-93542023-09-011493293331210.2166/wcc.2023.291291Investigating the influences of climate change on drought in a small data-scarce river catchmentFrank Joseph Wambura0 Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Ardhi University, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania This study focuses on the influences of climate change on drought characteristics in the small, data-scarce Ndembera River catchment in Tanzania, using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets and six regional climate models (RCMs) of the CORDEX-Africa framework. The RCM simulations were validated against the CRU data, and their optimistic (RCP 2.6) and worst-case (RCP 8.5) scenarios were used in estimating ensemble simulations using the random forest regression. The ensemble simulations were used to compute standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices, which characterized drought for the near-future, mid-future, and far-future. Finally, patterns and trends of changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to those in drought characteristics. The findings revealed substantial uncertainty in RCMs, although their ensembles fairly reproduced the historical climate in the catchment. Under the optimistic scenario, a slight decrease in precipitation and a small increase in maximum temperature are projected. Consequently, drought intensity is projected to rise just slightly but remain moderate throughout this century. These changes are expected to be more pronounced during the mid-future than the far-future. Under the worst-case scenario, the projected changes are expected to be more pronounced, especially during the end of the century. These sorts of insights are vital for enhancing adaptations to climate change in catchments. HIGHLIGHTS Investigation of the influences of climate change on drought in a small catchment.; Gridded observational data overcome the scarcity of historical data in the catchment.; Regional climate models fairly simulate the historical climate in the catchment.; Temperature change has longer and more direct influences on drought in the catchment.; Future climate change might not change the current moderate drought in the catchment.;http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/14/9/3293cordex-africacru datasetrandom forest regressionregional climate modelskill score testspei |
| spellingShingle | Frank Joseph Wambura Investigating the influences of climate change on drought in a small data-scarce river catchment Journal of Water and Climate Change cordex-africa cru dataset random forest regression regional climate model skill score test spei |
| title | Investigating the influences of climate change on drought in a small data-scarce river catchment |
| title_full | Investigating the influences of climate change on drought in a small data-scarce river catchment |
| title_fullStr | Investigating the influences of climate change on drought in a small data-scarce river catchment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigating the influences of climate change on drought in a small data-scarce river catchment |
| title_short | Investigating the influences of climate change on drought in a small data-scarce river catchment |
| title_sort | investigating the influences of climate change on drought in a small data scarce river catchment |
| topic | cordex-africa cru dataset random forest regression regional climate model skill score test spei |
| url | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/14/9/3293 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT frankjosephwambura investigatingtheinfluencesofclimatechangeondroughtinasmalldatascarcerivercatchment |