Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia)
The Mediterranean region is increasingly recognized as a climate change hotspot but is highly underrepresented in hydrological climate change studies. This study aims to investigate the climate change effects on the hydrology of Lakhmass catchment in Tunisia. Lakhmass catchment is a part of the Medi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2022-07-01
|
| Series: | Water |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/14/2242 |
| _version_ | 1797414867453345792 |
|---|---|
| author | Siwar Ben Nsir Seifeddine Jomaa Ümit Yıldırım Xiangqian Zhou Marco D’Oria Michael Rode Slaheddine Khlifi |
| author_facet | Siwar Ben Nsir Seifeddine Jomaa Ümit Yıldırım Xiangqian Zhou Marco D’Oria Michael Rode Slaheddine Khlifi |
| author_sort | Siwar Ben Nsir |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Mediterranean region is increasingly recognized as a climate change hotspot but is highly underrepresented in hydrological climate change studies. This study aims to investigate the climate change effects on the hydrology of Lakhmass catchment in Tunisia. Lakhmass catchment is a part of the Medium Valley of Medjerda in northwestern Tunisia that drains an area of 126 km². First, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning light (HBV-light) model was calibrated and validated successfully at a daily time step to simulate discharge during the 1981–1986 period. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency and Percent bias (NSE, PBIAS) were (0.80, +2.0%) and (0.53, −9.5%) for calibration (September 1982–August 1984) and validation (September 1984–August 1986) periods, respectively. Second, HBV-light model was considered as a predictive tool to simulate discharge in a baseline period (1981–2009) and future projections using data (precipitation and temperature) from thirteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climatic Models (RCMs). We used two trajectories of Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each RCP is divided into three projection periods: near-term (2010–2039), mid-term (2040–2069) and long-term (2070–2099). For both scenarios, a decrease in precipitation and discharge will be expected with an increase in air temperature and a reduction in precipitation with almost 5% for every +1 °C of global warming. By long-term (2070–2099) projection period, results suggested an increase in temperature with about 2.7 °C and 4 °C, and a decrease in precipitation of approximately 7.5% and 15% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This will likely result in a reduction of discharge of 12.5% and 36.6% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This situation calls for early climate change adaptation measures under a participatory approach, including multiple stakeholders and water users. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:40:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-75ec47cfa4d847669482c8d4b00640f1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:40:14Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-75ec47cfa4d847669482c8d4b00640f12023-12-03T12:25:25ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-07-011414224210.3390/w14142242Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia)Siwar Ben Nsir0Seifeddine Jomaa1Ümit Yıldırım2Xiangqian Zhou3Marco D’Oria4Michael Rode5Slaheddine Khlifi6Unité de Recherche en Gestion des Ressources en Eau et en Sol, Ecole Supérieure d’Ingénieurs de Medjez El Bab, Université de Jendouba, Route du Kef Km 5, Medjez El Bab 9070, TunisiaDepartment of Aquatic Ecosystem Analysis and Management, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ, Brückstrasse 3a, 39114 Magdeburg, GermanyDepartment of Interior Architecture and Environmental Designing, Faculty of Arts and Designing, Bâberti Settlement, Bayburt University, 69000 Bayburt, TurkeyDepartment of Aquatic Ecosystem Analysis and Management, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ, Brückstrasse 3a, 39114 Magdeburg, GermanyDepartment of Engineering and Architecture, University of Parma, Parco Area delle Scienze 181/A, 43124 Parma, ItalyDepartment of Aquatic Ecosystem Analysis and Management, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ, Brückstrasse 3a, 39114 Magdeburg, GermanyUnité de Recherche en Gestion des Ressources en Eau et en Sol, Ecole Supérieure d’Ingénieurs de Medjez El Bab, Université de Jendouba, Route du Kef Km 5, Medjez El Bab 9070, TunisiaThe Mediterranean region is increasingly recognized as a climate change hotspot but is highly underrepresented in hydrological climate change studies. This study aims to investigate the climate change effects on the hydrology of Lakhmass catchment in Tunisia. Lakhmass catchment is a part of the Medium Valley of Medjerda in northwestern Tunisia that drains an area of 126 km². First, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning light (HBV-light) model was calibrated and validated successfully at a daily time step to simulate discharge during the 1981–1986 period. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency and Percent bias (NSE, PBIAS) were (0.80, +2.0%) and (0.53, −9.5%) for calibration (September 1982–August 1984) and validation (September 1984–August 1986) periods, respectively. Second, HBV-light model was considered as a predictive tool to simulate discharge in a baseline period (1981–2009) and future projections using data (precipitation and temperature) from thirteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climatic Models (RCMs). We used two trajectories of Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each RCP is divided into three projection periods: near-term (2010–2039), mid-term (2040–2069) and long-term (2070–2099). For both scenarios, a decrease in precipitation and discharge will be expected with an increase in air temperature and a reduction in precipitation with almost 5% for every +1 °C of global warming. By long-term (2070–2099) projection period, results suggested an increase in temperature with about 2.7 °C and 4 °C, and a decrease in precipitation of approximately 7.5% and 15% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This will likely result in a reduction of discharge of 12.5% and 36.6% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This situation calls for early climate change adaptation measures under a participatory approach, including multiple stakeholders and water users.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/14/2242hydrological modelingHBV-light modelMediterraneandischargeclimate changeRCP4.5 and 8.5 |
| spellingShingle | Siwar Ben Nsir Seifeddine Jomaa Ümit Yıldırım Xiangqian Zhou Marco D’Oria Michael Rode Slaheddine Khlifi Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia) Water hydrological modeling HBV-light model Mediterranean discharge climate change RCP4.5 and 8.5 |
| title | Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia) |
| title_full | Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia) |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia) |
| title_short | Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia) |
| title_sort | assessment of climate change impact on discharge of the lakhmass catchment northwest tunisia |
| topic | hydrological modeling HBV-light model Mediterranean discharge climate change RCP4.5 and 8.5 |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/14/2242 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT siwarbennsir assessmentofclimatechangeimpactondischargeofthelakhmasscatchmentnorthwesttunisia AT seifeddinejomaa assessmentofclimatechangeimpactondischargeofthelakhmasscatchmentnorthwesttunisia AT umityıldırım assessmentofclimatechangeimpactondischargeofthelakhmasscatchmentnorthwesttunisia AT xiangqianzhou assessmentofclimatechangeimpactondischargeofthelakhmasscatchmentnorthwesttunisia AT marcodoria assessmentofclimatechangeimpactondischargeofthelakhmasscatchmentnorthwesttunisia AT michaelrode assessmentofclimatechangeimpactondischargeofthelakhmasscatchmentnorthwesttunisia AT slaheddinekhlifi assessmentofclimatechangeimpactondischargeofthelakhmasscatchmentnorthwesttunisia |