Differential Privacy in the 2020 Census Will Distort COVID-19 Rates
Scholars rely on accurate population and mortality data to inform efforts regarding the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with age-specific mortality rates of high importance because of the concentration of COVID-19 deaths at older ages. Population counts, the principal denominators for...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SAGE Publishing
2021-02-01
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| Series: | Socius |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1177/2378023121994014 |
| _version_ | 1818458237101408256 |
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| author | Mathew E. Hauer Alexis R. Santos-Lozada |
| author_facet | Mathew E. Hauer Alexis R. Santos-Lozada |
| author_sort | Mathew E. Hauer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Scholars rely on accurate population and mortality data to inform efforts regarding the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with age-specific mortality rates of high importance because of the concentration of COVID-19 deaths at older ages. Population counts, the principal denominators for calculating age-specific mortality rates, will be subject to noise infusion in the United States with the 2020 census through a disclosure avoidance system based on differential privacy. Using empirical COVID-19 mortality curves, the authors show that differential privacy will introduce substantial distortion in COVID-19 mortality rates, sometimes causing mortality rates to exceed 100 percent, hindering our ability to understand the pandemic. This distortion is particularly large for population groupings with fewer than 1,000 persons: 40 percent of all county-level age-sex groupings and 60 percent of race groupings. The U.S. Census Bureau should consider a larger privacy budget, and data users should consider pooling data to minimize differential privacy’s distortion. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T22:55:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-761c03ad11ad4913b1cc7d68f083d438 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2378-0231 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T22:55:16Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | SAGE Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Socius |
| spelling | doaj.art-761c03ad11ad4913b1cc7d68f083d4382022-12-21T22:44:36ZengSAGE PublishingSocius2378-02312021-02-01710.1177/2378023121994014Differential Privacy in the 2020 Census Will Distort COVID-19 RatesMathew E. Hauer0Alexis R. Santos-Lozada1Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USAPennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USAScholars rely on accurate population and mortality data to inform efforts regarding the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with age-specific mortality rates of high importance because of the concentration of COVID-19 deaths at older ages. Population counts, the principal denominators for calculating age-specific mortality rates, will be subject to noise infusion in the United States with the 2020 census through a disclosure avoidance system based on differential privacy. Using empirical COVID-19 mortality curves, the authors show that differential privacy will introduce substantial distortion in COVID-19 mortality rates, sometimes causing mortality rates to exceed 100 percent, hindering our ability to understand the pandemic. This distortion is particularly large for population groupings with fewer than 1,000 persons: 40 percent of all county-level age-sex groupings and 60 percent of race groupings. The U.S. Census Bureau should consider a larger privacy budget, and data users should consider pooling data to minimize differential privacy’s distortion.https://doi.org/10.1177/2378023121994014 |
| spellingShingle | Mathew E. Hauer Alexis R. Santos-Lozada Differential Privacy in the 2020 Census Will Distort COVID-19 Rates Socius |
| title | Differential Privacy in the 2020 Census Will Distort COVID-19 Rates |
| title_full | Differential Privacy in the 2020 Census Will Distort COVID-19 Rates |
| title_fullStr | Differential Privacy in the 2020 Census Will Distort COVID-19 Rates |
| title_full_unstemmed | Differential Privacy in the 2020 Census Will Distort COVID-19 Rates |
| title_short | Differential Privacy in the 2020 Census Will Distort COVID-19 Rates |
| title_sort | differential privacy in the 2020 census will distort covid 19 rates |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1177/2378023121994014 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mathewehauer differentialprivacyinthe2020censuswilldistortcovid19rates AT alexisrsantoslozada differentialprivacyinthe2020censuswilldistortcovid19rates |