Cash flow forecasting with risk consideration using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS)
Cash-flow management is very important for contractors given that inadequate cash resources typically are the main causes for bankruptcy of construction companies. In comparison to most other industries, the construction industry is severely plagued by risk, and the success of construction projects...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
2017-11-01
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| Series: | Journal of Civil Engineering and Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JCEM/article/view/1257 |
| _version_ | 1798022511663775744 |
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| author | Mostafa Khanzadi Ehsan Eshtehardian Mahdiyar Mokhlespour Esfahani |
| author_facet | Mostafa Khanzadi Ehsan Eshtehardian Mahdiyar Mokhlespour Esfahani |
| author_sort | Mostafa Khanzadi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Cash-flow management is very important for contractors given that inadequate cash resources typically are the main causes for bankruptcy of construction companies. In comparison to most other industries, the construction industry is severely plagued by risk, and the success of construction projects usually depends on valuating all risks. However, conventional methods suggested by extant research on cash flow forecasting do not consider comprehensive identification of risk factors, interactions between the factors, and simultaneous occurrences of the factors. This study introduced a simple and appropriate probabilistic cash flow forecasting model using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to avoid bankruptcy of contractors by considering influence diagrams and risk factors that affect a project. Workability and reliability of the proposed approach was tested on an important building construction project in Iran as a real case study, and the results indicated that the model performed well. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T17:31:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-762607b0ccb5490db32d25b688e163fa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1392-3730 1822-3605 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T17:31:09Z |
| publishDate | 2017-11-01 |
| publisher | Vilnius Gediminas Technical University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Civil Engineering and Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-762607b0ccb5490db32d25b688e163fa2022-12-22T04:12:02ZengVilnius Gediminas Technical UniversityJournal of Civil Engineering and Management1392-37301822-36052017-11-0123810.3846/13923730.2017.1374303Cash flow forecasting with risk consideration using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS)Mostafa Khanzadi0Ehsan Eshtehardian1Mahdiyar Mokhlespour Esfahani2Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, Tehran, IranDepartment of Architecture & Art, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, IranDepartment of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, Tehran, IranCash-flow management is very important for contractors given that inadequate cash resources typically are the main causes for bankruptcy of construction companies. In comparison to most other industries, the construction industry is severely plagued by risk, and the success of construction projects usually depends on valuating all risks. However, conventional methods suggested by extant research on cash flow forecasting do not consider comprehensive identification of risk factors, interactions between the factors, and simultaneous occurrences of the factors. This study introduced a simple and appropriate probabilistic cash flow forecasting model using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to avoid bankruptcy of contractors by considering influence diagrams and risk factors that affect a project. Workability and reliability of the proposed approach was tested on an important building construction project in Iran as a real case study, and the results indicated that the model performed well.http://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JCEM/article/view/1257probabilistic cash flowconstruction risk factorsBayesian Belief Networks (BBNs)forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Mostafa Khanzadi Ehsan Eshtehardian Mahdiyar Mokhlespour Esfahani Cash flow forecasting with risk consideration using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) Journal of Civil Engineering and Management probabilistic cash flow construction risk factors Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) forecasting |
| title | Cash flow forecasting with risk consideration using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) |
| title_full | Cash flow forecasting with risk consideration using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) |
| title_fullStr | Cash flow forecasting with risk consideration using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cash flow forecasting with risk consideration using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) |
| title_short | Cash flow forecasting with risk consideration using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) |
| title_sort | cash flow forecasting with risk consideration using bayesian belief networks bbns |
| topic | probabilistic cash flow construction risk factors Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) forecasting |
| url | http://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JCEM/article/view/1257 |
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