Predicting the habitat suitability for populations of Pacific cod under different climate change scenarios considering intraspecific genetic variation
Several studies have demonstrated the importance of integrating intraspecific genetic variation in forecasting the habitat suitability of species under climate change scenarios. The Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) is an economically important fish species in the North Pacific that can be classifie...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22007208 |
| _version_ | 1798041794774040576 |
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| author | Linjie Li Linlin Zhao Jinbo Fu Bin Sun Changdong Liu |
| author_facet | Linjie Li Linlin Zhao Jinbo Fu Bin Sun Changdong Liu |
| author_sort | Linjie Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Several studies have demonstrated the importance of integrating intraspecific genetic variation in forecasting the habitat suitability of species under climate change scenarios. The Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) is an economically important fish species in the North Pacific that can be classified into western and eastern populations based on molecular phylogeographic data. Herein, we first quantified the realized niche of the two Pacific cod populations using n-dimensional hypervolumes and estimated the niche differentiation between the populations. We then projected the habitat suitability based on the georeferenced occurrence records and environmental predictors using species distribution models (SDMs) at the population and species levels. The low niche overlap demonstrated the marked niche differentiation between the two populations. The distinct responses of the populations to climate predictors implied that the population-level SDM produced more reliable projections than the corresponding species-level SDM. The model indicated that the eastern population expanded its suitable area northward, while maintaining most of its current habitat and exhibited resilience to climate impacts. However, the western population lost much of its current suitable area, while colonizing a new habitat in a small section of the offshore waters of the Japanese Sea, implying the vulnerability of this population to climate change. This study highlights the necessity of incorporating intraspecific genetic variation into SDMs to predict the habitat suitability of Pacific cod on the global scale. The spatiotemporal predictive maps of habitat suitability provide crucial information for designing climate-adaptive conservation and management strategies based on more precise taxonomic units for the sustainability of Pacific cod. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:26:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7626900bde184b2db642f68fb380e703 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:26:36Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-7626900bde184b2db642f68fb380e7032022-12-22T03:59:38ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2022-09-01142109248Predicting the habitat suitability for populations of Pacific cod under different climate change scenarios considering intraspecific genetic variationLinjie Li0Linlin Zhao1Jinbo Fu2Bin Sun3Changdong Liu4Department of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, ChinaFirst Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, Shandong, ChinaDepartment of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, ChinaDepartment of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, ChinaDepartment of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, China; Corresponding author at: Department of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, No. 5, Yushan Road, Qingdao, Shandong, China.Several studies have demonstrated the importance of integrating intraspecific genetic variation in forecasting the habitat suitability of species under climate change scenarios. The Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) is an economically important fish species in the North Pacific that can be classified into western and eastern populations based on molecular phylogeographic data. Herein, we first quantified the realized niche of the two Pacific cod populations using n-dimensional hypervolumes and estimated the niche differentiation between the populations. We then projected the habitat suitability based on the georeferenced occurrence records and environmental predictors using species distribution models (SDMs) at the population and species levels. The low niche overlap demonstrated the marked niche differentiation between the two populations. The distinct responses of the populations to climate predictors implied that the population-level SDM produced more reliable projections than the corresponding species-level SDM. The model indicated that the eastern population expanded its suitable area northward, while maintaining most of its current habitat and exhibited resilience to climate impacts. However, the western population lost much of its current suitable area, while colonizing a new habitat in a small section of the offshore waters of the Japanese Sea, implying the vulnerability of this population to climate change. This study highlights the necessity of incorporating intraspecific genetic variation into SDMs to predict the habitat suitability of Pacific cod on the global scale. The spatiotemporal predictive maps of habitat suitability provide crucial information for designing climate-adaptive conservation and management strategies based on more precise taxonomic units for the sustainability of Pacific cod.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22007208Gadus macrocephalusIntraspecific genetic variationNiche differentiationHabitat suitabilityClimate change |
| spellingShingle | Linjie Li Linlin Zhao Jinbo Fu Bin Sun Changdong Liu Predicting the habitat suitability for populations of Pacific cod under different climate change scenarios considering intraspecific genetic variation Ecological Indicators Gadus macrocephalus Intraspecific genetic variation Niche differentiation Habitat suitability Climate change |
| title | Predicting the habitat suitability for populations of Pacific cod under different climate change scenarios considering intraspecific genetic variation |
| title_full | Predicting the habitat suitability for populations of Pacific cod under different climate change scenarios considering intraspecific genetic variation |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the habitat suitability for populations of Pacific cod under different climate change scenarios considering intraspecific genetic variation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the habitat suitability for populations of Pacific cod under different climate change scenarios considering intraspecific genetic variation |
| title_short | Predicting the habitat suitability for populations of Pacific cod under different climate change scenarios considering intraspecific genetic variation |
| title_sort | predicting the habitat suitability for populations of pacific cod under different climate change scenarios considering intraspecific genetic variation |
| topic | Gadus macrocephalus Intraspecific genetic variation Niche differentiation Habitat suitability Climate change |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22007208 |
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