Time-Inhomogeneous Finite Birth Processes with Applications in Epidemic Models

We consider the evolution of a finite population constituted by susceptible and infectious individuals and compare several time-inhomogeneous deterministic models with their stochastic counterpart based on finite birth processes. For these processes, we determine the explicit expressions of the tran...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Virginia Giorno, Amelia G. Nobile
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2023-11-01
Series:Mathematics
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/21/4521
Description
Summary:We consider the evolution of a finite population constituted by susceptible and infectious individuals and compare several time-inhomogeneous deterministic models with their stochastic counterpart based on finite birth processes. For these processes, we determine the explicit expressions of the transition probabilities and of the first-passage time densities. For time-homogeneous finite birth processes, the behavior of the mean and the variance of the first-passage time density is also analyzed. Moreover, the approximate duration until the entire population is infected is obtained for a large population size.
ISSN:2227-7390