Individual-based modeling reveals that the COVID-19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccination
Abstract The isolation of infected individuals and quarantine of their contacts are usually employed to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Although 14-day isolation of infected individuals could effectively reduce the risk of subsequent transmission, it also substantially impacts the patient&#...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21645-y |
| _version_ | 1811249931560681472 |
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| author | Chayanin Sararat Jidchanok Wangkanai Chaiwat Wilasang Tanakorn Chantanasaro Charin Modchang |
| author_facet | Chayanin Sararat Jidchanok Wangkanai Chaiwat Wilasang Tanakorn Chantanasaro Charin Modchang |
| author_sort | Chayanin Sararat |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The isolation of infected individuals and quarantine of their contacts are usually employed to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Although 14-day isolation of infected individuals could effectively reduce the risk of subsequent transmission, it also substantially impacts the patient's psychological and emotional well-being. It is, therefore, vital to investigate how the isolation duration could be shortened when effective vaccines are available. Here, an individual-based modeling approach was employed to estimate the likelihood of secondary infections and the likelihood of an outbreak following the isolation of a primary case for a range of isolation periods. Our individual-based model integrated the viral loads and infectiousness profiles of vaccinated and unvaccinated infected individuals. The effects of waning vaccine-induced immunity against infection were also considered. By simulating the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant in a community, we found that in the baseline scenario in which all individuals were unvaccinated and nonpharmaceutical interventions were not used, there was an approximately 3% chance that an unvaccinated individual would lead to at least one secondary infection after being isolated for 14 days, and a sustained chain of transmission could occur with a less than 1% chance. With the outbreak risk equivalent to that of the 14-day isolation in the baseline scenario, we found that the isolation duration could be shortened to 7.33 days (95% CI 6.68–7.98) if 75% of people in the community were fully vaccinated with the BNT162b2 vaccine within the last three months. In the best-case scenario in which all individuals in the community are fully vaccinated, isolation of Delta variant-infected individuals may no longer be necessary. However, to keep the outbreak risk lower than 1%, a booster vaccination may be necessary three months after full vaccination. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T15:55:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-765e761e874742ba861ab261943d9e9b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T15:55:05Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-765e761e874742ba861ab261943d9e9b2022-12-22T03:26:23ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-10-0112111110.1038/s41598-022-21645-yIndividual-based modeling reveals that the COVID-19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccinationChayanin Sararat0Jidchanok Wangkanai1Chaiwat Wilasang2Tanakorn Chantanasaro3Charin Modchang4Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol UniversityBiophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol UniversityBiophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol UniversityBiophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol UniversityBiophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol UniversityAbstract The isolation of infected individuals and quarantine of their contacts are usually employed to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Although 14-day isolation of infected individuals could effectively reduce the risk of subsequent transmission, it also substantially impacts the patient's psychological and emotional well-being. It is, therefore, vital to investigate how the isolation duration could be shortened when effective vaccines are available. Here, an individual-based modeling approach was employed to estimate the likelihood of secondary infections and the likelihood of an outbreak following the isolation of a primary case for a range of isolation periods. Our individual-based model integrated the viral loads and infectiousness profiles of vaccinated and unvaccinated infected individuals. The effects of waning vaccine-induced immunity against infection were also considered. By simulating the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant in a community, we found that in the baseline scenario in which all individuals were unvaccinated and nonpharmaceutical interventions were not used, there was an approximately 3% chance that an unvaccinated individual would lead to at least one secondary infection after being isolated for 14 days, and a sustained chain of transmission could occur with a less than 1% chance. With the outbreak risk equivalent to that of the 14-day isolation in the baseline scenario, we found that the isolation duration could be shortened to 7.33 days (95% CI 6.68–7.98) if 75% of people in the community were fully vaccinated with the BNT162b2 vaccine within the last three months. In the best-case scenario in which all individuals in the community are fully vaccinated, isolation of Delta variant-infected individuals may no longer be necessary. However, to keep the outbreak risk lower than 1%, a booster vaccination may be necessary three months after full vaccination.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21645-y |
| spellingShingle | Chayanin Sararat Jidchanok Wangkanai Chaiwat Wilasang Tanakorn Chantanasaro Charin Modchang Individual-based modeling reveals that the COVID-19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccination Scientific Reports |
| title | Individual-based modeling reveals that the COVID-19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccination |
| title_full | Individual-based modeling reveals that the COVID-19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccination |
| title_fullStr | Individual-based modeling reveals that the COVID-19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccination |
| title_full_unstemmed | Individual-based modeling reveals that the COVID-19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccination |
| title_short | Individual-based modeling reveals that the COVID-19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccination |
| title_sort | individual based modeling reveals that the covid 19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccination |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21645-y |
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