Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa
Increasing levels of climatic warming are expected to affect the global development of energy consumption. The cooling degree day (CDD) is one of the climate-driven indices that captures the impact of climate on energy demand. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal trends of CDD in relati...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbc8f |
| _version_ | 1797747394163507200 |
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| author | Oluwarotimi Delano Thierry Odou Heidi Heinrichs Ursula Rabani Adamou Thierry Godjo Mounkaila S Moussa |
| author_facet | Oluwarotimi Delano Thierry Odou Heidi Heinrichs Ursula Rabani Adamou Thierry Godjo Mounkaila S Moussa |
| author_sort | Oluwarotimi Delano Thierry Odou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Increasing levels of climatic warming are expected to affect the global development of energy consumption. The cooling degree day (CDD) is one of the climate-driven indices that captures the impact of climate on energy demand. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal trends of CDD in relation to a changing climate and economy in West Africa and its main implications. Hence, in order to analyze how energy demand could evolve, this study aims to assess the changes in CDD under 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0 ° C global warming levels (GWLs), with and without population exposure and trends under the two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for West Africa. A climate-reflective base temperature (T-base) is used and was determined using a piecewise linear regression method. Seasonal electricity consumption was derived using a decomposition feature. An ensemble of seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) were used for the future temperature projections. The future population was based on shared socioeconomic pathway outputs. Based on the analysis, the reported average T-base for the West African region is 24 ° C. An increasing CDD trend was identified in all of the RCP scenarios, but is more pronounced in RCP8.5. RCP8.5 departs from the mean historical period of approximately 20% by 2100 with the standardized value. The same trend is observed under different GWLs as the warming level increased and was most striking in the Sahelian zone. Population exposure to CDD (labelled CDDP) increases with warming levels, but is more pronounced in highly agglomerated areas. The CDDP index best captures the spatial representation of areas with high cooling demand potential with respect to the demographic distribution. This study can serve to inform better energy demand assessment scenarios and supply planning against the backdrop of changing climate conditions in West Africa. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:49:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-76d611d39b504fbf9f3d72965ac54e0d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:49:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-76d611d39b504fbf9f3d72965ac54e0d2023-08-09T15:14:38ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118303402910.1088/1748-9326/acbc8fPotential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West AfricaOluwarotimi Delano Thierry Odou0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7972-536XHeidi Heinrichs Ursula1Rabani Adamou2Thierry Godjo3Mounkaila S Moussa4Faculty of Sciences and Techniques (FAST), West-Africa Graduate School on Climate Change and Energy, Abou Moumuni University of Niamey , Niamey, BP: 10662 FAST, NigerInstitute of Energy and Climate Research—Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich , Wilhelm-Johnen-Straße, 52425 Jülich, GermanyFaculty of Sciences and Techniques (FAST), West-Africa Graduate School on Climate Change and Energy, Abou Moumuni University of Niamey , Niamey, BP: 10662 FAST, NigerNational University of Sciences, Technologies, Engineering and Mathematics (UNSTIM) of Abomey , B.P. 2282 Goho Abomey, BeninFaculty of Sciences and Techniques (FAST), West-Africa Graduate School on Climate Change and Energy, Abou Moumuni University of Niamey , Niamey, BP: 10662 FAST, NigerIncreasing levels of climatic warming are expected to affect the global development of energy consumption. The cooling degree day (CDD) is one of the climate-driven indices that captures the impact of climate on energy demand. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal trends of CDD in relation to a changing climate and economy in West Africa and its main implications. Hence, in order to analyze how energy demand could evolve, this study aims to assess the changes in CDD under 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0 ° C global warming levels (GWLs), with and without population exposure and trends under the two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for West Africa. A climate-reflective base temperature (T-base) is used and was determined using a piecewise linear regression method. Seasonal electricity consumption was derived using a decomposition feature. An ensemble of seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) were used for the future temperature projections. The future population was based on shared socioeconomic pathway outputs. Based on the analysis, the reported average T-base for the West African region is 24 ° C. An increasing CDD trend was identified in all of the RCP scenarios, but is more pronounced in RCP8.5. RCP8.5 departs from the mean historical period of approximately 20% by 2100 with the standardized value. The same trend is observed under different GWLs as the warming level increased and was most striking in the Sahelian zone. Population exposure to CDD (labelled CDDP) increases with warming levels, but is more pronounced in highly agglomerated areas. The CDDP index best captures the spatial representation of areas with high cooling demand potential with respect to the demographic distribution. This study can serve to inform better energy demand assessment scenarios and supply planning against the backdrop of changing climate conditions in West Africa.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbc8fbase temperaturecooling demandscenario frameworkglobal warmingsocioeconomic pathways |
| spellingShingle | Oluwarotimi Delano Thierry Odou Heidi Heinrichs Ursula Rabani Adamou Thierry Godjo Mounkaila S Moussa Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa Environmental Research Letters base temperature cooling demand scenario framework global warming socioeconomic pathways |
| title | Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa |
| title_full | Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa |
| title_fullStr | Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa |
| title_short | Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa |
| title_sort | potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in west africa |
| topic | base temperature cooling demand scenario framework global warming socioeconomic pathways |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbc8f |
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