The impact of mitigation measures against COVID-19 on the incidence of pertussis and its evaluation using the ARIMA model
The aim of the study was to determine the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mitigation measures on the spread of pertussis and identify which measures were most effective in preventing the spread of this disease. In order to analyze pertussis incidence dynamics in Moscow (Russi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Informatics in Medicine Unlocked |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352914823002356 |
| _version_ | 1797646590291214336 |
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| author | Sonya O. Vysochanskaya Artem A. Basov Yury V. Zhernov Tatiana R. Belova Alexander M. Zatevalov Oleg V. Mitrokhin Inna A. Fadeeva Svetlana Y. Kombarova |
| author_facet | Sonya O. Vysochanskaya Artem A. Basov Yury V. Zhernov Tatiana R. Belova Alexander M. Zatevalov Oleg V. Mitrokhin Inna A. Fadeeva Svetlana Y. Kombarova |
| author_sort | Sonya O. Vysochanskaya |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The aim of the study was to determine the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mitigation measures on the spread of pertussis and identify which measures were most effective in preventing the spread of this disease. In order to analyze pertussis incidence dynamics in Moscow (Russian Federation), the quasiexperimental interrupted time series (ITS) approach was used. The mathematical modeling of the incidence time series was conducted with regression with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors. COVID-19 mitigation measures reduced the incidence of pertussis infection compared with the predicted incidence without restrictive measures of 42.7 %. Our analysis has shown that the most efficient COVID-19 mitigation measures influencing pertussis incidence were «restriction of mass events», «self-isolation regime for the elderly persons over 65 years of age and persons with chronic diseases» and «transfer to remote work of at least 30 % of the total number of employees». The obtained results of this research can be used for the selection of the most efficient mitigation measures to reduce the incidence and limit the spread of pertussis outbreaks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:04:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-77144fe228f1464c81d15109681d90b7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2352-9148 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:04:48Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Informatics in Medicine Unlocked |
| spelling | doaj.art-77144fe228f1464c81d15109681d90b72023-10-30T06:05:18ZengElsevierInformatics in Medicine Unlocked2352-91482023-01-0142101389The impact of mitigation measures against COVID-19 on the incidence of pertussis and its evaluation using the ARIMA modelSonya O. Vysochanskaya0Artem A. Basov1Yury V. Zhernov2Tatiana R. Belova3Alexander M. Zatevalov4Oleg V. Mitrokhin5Inna A. Fadeeva6Svetlana Y. Kombarova7G.N. Gabrichevsky Research Institute for Epidemiology and Microbiology, 125212, Moscow, Russia; Department of General Hygiene, F. Erismann Institute of Public Health, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), 119435, Moscow, Russia; Corresponding author. G.N. Gabrichevsky Research Institute for Epidemiology and Microbiology, 125212, Moscow, Russia.G.N. Gabrichevsky Research Institute for Epidemiology and Microbiology, 125212, Moscow, Russia; Department of General Hygiene, F. Erismann Institute of Public Health, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), 119435, Moscow, RussiaDepartment of General Hygiene, F. Erismann Institute of Public Health, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), 119435, Moscow, Russia; Department of Chemistry, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia; Center of Life Sciences, Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, 121205, Moscow, Russia; Center for Medical Anthropology, N.N. Miklukho-Maclay Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, RussiaG.N. Gabrichevsky Research Institute for Epidemiology and Microbiology, 125212, Moscow, RussiaG.N. Gabrichevsky Research Institute for Epidemiology and Microbiology, 125212, Moscow, RussiaDepartment of General Hygiene, F. Erismann Institute of Public Health, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), 119435, Moscow, RussiaDepartment of Foreign Language, Faculty of World Economy, Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, 119034, Moscow, Russia; Department of Public Administration in Foreign Policy, Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, 119034, Moscow, RussiaG.N. Gabrichevsky Research Institute for Epidemiology and Microbiology, 125212, Moscow, RussiaThe aim of the study was to determine the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mitigation measures on the spread of pertussis and identify which measures were most effective in preventing the spread of this disease. In order to analyze pertussis incidence dynamics in Moscow (Russian Federation), the quasiexperimental interrupted time series (ITS) approach was used. The mathematical modeling of the incidence time series was conducted with regression with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors. COVID-19 mitigation measures reduced the incidence of pertussis infection compared with the predicted incidence without restrictive measures of 42.7 %. Our analysis has shown that the most efficient COVID-19 mitigation measures influencing pertussis incidence were «restriction of mass events», «self-isolation regime for the elderly persons over 65 years of age and persons with chronic diseases» and «transfer to remote work of at least 30 % of the total number of employees». The obtained results of this research can be used for the selection of the most efficient mitigation measures to reduce the incidence and limit the spread of pertussis outbreaks.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352914823002356COVID-19PertussisBordetella pertussisMitigation measuresInterrupted time seriesARIMA |
| spellingShingle | Sonya O. Vysochanskaya Artem A. Basov Yury V. Zhernov Tatiana R. Belova Alexander M. Zatevalov Oleg V. Mitrokhin Inna A. Fadeeva Svetlana Y. Kombarova The impact of mitigation measures against COVID-19 on the incidence of pertussis and its evaluation using the ARIMA model Informatics in Medicine Unlocked COVID-19 Pertussis Bordetella pertussis Mitigation measures Interrupted time series ARIMA |
| title | The impact of mitigation measures against COVID-19 on the incidence of pertussis and its evaluation using the ARIMA model |
| title_full | The impact of mitigation measures against COVID-19 on the incidence of pertussis and its evaluation using the ARIMA model |
| title_fullStr | The impact of mitigation measures against COVID-19 on the incidence of pertussis and its evaluation using the ARIMA model |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of mitigation measures against COVID-19 on the incidence of pertussis and its evaluation using the ARIMA model |
| title_short | The impact of mitigation measures against COVID-19 on the incidence of pertussis and its evaluation using the ARIMA model |
| title_sort | impact of mitigation measures against covid 19 on the incidence of pertussis and its evaluation using the arima model |
| topic | COVID-19 Pertussis Bordetella pertussis Mitigation measures Interrupted time series ARIMA |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352914823002356 |
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