Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model
Flight crew performance is of great significance in keeping flights safe and sound. When evaluating the crew performance, quantitative detailed behavior information may not be available. The present paper introduces the Bayesian Network to perform flight crew performance evaluation, which permits th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2018-03-01
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| Series: | Entropy |
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| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/20/3/178 |
| _version_ | 1798005270975086592 |
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| author | Wei Chen Shuping Huang |
| author_facet | Wei Chen Shuping Huang |
| author_sort | Wei Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Flight crew performance is of great significance in keeping flights safe and sound. When evaluating the crew performance, quantitative detailed behavior information may not be available. The present paper introduces the Bayesian Network to perform flight crew performance evaluation, which permits the utilization of multidisciplinary sources of objective and subjective information, despite sparse behavioral data. In this paper, the causal factors are selected based on the analysis of 484 aviation accidents caused by human factors. Then, a network termed Flight Crew Performance Model is constructed. The Delphi technique helps to gather subjective data as a supplement to objective data from accident reports. The conditional probabilities are elicited by the leaky noisy MAX model. Two ways of inference for the BN—probability prediction and probabilistic diagnosis are used and some interesting conclusions are drawn, which could provide data support to make interventions for human error management in aviation safety. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T12:37:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-771e01edeeb94225bbad80aa3f92490d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1099-4300 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T12:37:42Z |
| publishDate | 2018-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Entropy |
| spelling | doaj.art-771e01edeeb94225bbad80aa3f92490d2022-12-22T04:23:35ZengMDPI AGEntropy1099-43002018-03-0120317810.3390/e20030178e20030178Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network ModelWei Chen0Shuping Huang1Shanghai Aircraft Design & Research Institute, Shanghai 201210, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, ChinaFlight crew performance is of great significance in keeping flights safe and sound. When evaluating the crew performance, quantitative detailed behavior information may not be available. The present paper introduces the Bayesian Network to perform flight crew performance evaluation, which permits the utilization of multidisciplinary sources of objective and subjective information, despite sparse behavioral data. In this paper, the causal factors are selected based on the analysis of 484 aviation accidents caused by human factors. Then, a network termed Flight Crew Performance Model is constructed. The Delphi technique helps to gather subjective data as a supplement to objective data from accident reports. The conditional probabilities are elicited by the leaky noisy MAX model. Two ways of inference for the BN—probability prediction and probabilistic diagnosis are used and some interesting conclusions are drawn, which could provide data support to make interventions for human error management in aviation safety.http://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/20/3/178flight crewBayesian NetworkDelphi techniqueleaky noisy MAX model |
| spellingShingle | Wei Chen Shuping Huang Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model Entropy flight crew Bayesian Network Delphi technique leaky noisy MAX model |
| title | Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model |
| title_full | Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model |
| title_short | Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model |
| title_sort | evaluating flight crew performance by a bayesian network model |
| topic | flight crew Bayesian Network Delphi technique leaky noisy MAX model |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/20/3/178 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT weichen evaluatingflightcrewperformancebyabayesiannetworkmodel AT shupinghuang evaluatingflightcrewperformancebyabayesiannetworkmodel |