Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coast
The extension of seasonal to interannual prediction of the physical climate system to include the marine ecosystem has a great potential to inform marine resource management strategies. Along the east coast of Africa, recent findings suggest that skillful Earth system model (ESM)-based chlorophyll p...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d63 |
| _version_ | 1797747394386853888 |
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| author | Woojin Jeon Jong-Yeon Park Charles A Stock John P Dunne Xiaosong Yang Anthony Rosati |
| author_facet | Woojin Jeon Jong-Yeon Park Charles A Stock John P Dunne Xiaosong Yang Anthony Rosati |
| author_sort | Woojin Jeon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The extension of seasonal to interannual prediction of the physical climate system to include the marine ecosystem has a great potential to inform marine resource management strategies. Along the east coast of Africa, recent findings suggest that skillful Earth system model (ESM)-based chlorophyll predictions may enable anticipation of fisheries fluctuations. The mechanisms underlying skillful chlorophyll predictions, however, were not identified, eroding confidence in potential adaptive management steps. This study demonstrates that skillful chlorophyll predictions up to two years in advance arise from the successful simulation of westward-propagating off-equatorial Rossby waves in the Indian ocean. Upwelling associated with these waves supplies nutrients to the surface layer for the large coastal areas by generating north- and southward propagating waves at the east African coast. Further analysis shows that the off-equatorial Rossby wave is initially excited by wind stress forcing caused by El Niño/Southern Oscillation-Indian Ocean teleconnections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-773c4e912d0d4b55b1224419aa6cc6e1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:58Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-773c4e912d0d4b55b1224419aa6cc6e12023-08-09T15:13:38ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117808400410.1088/1748-9326/ac7d63Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coastWoojin Jeon0Jong-Yeon Park1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8125-4552Charles A Stock2John P Dunne3Xiaosong Yang4Anthony Rosati5Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Jeonbuk National University , Jeonju, Jeollabuk-do, Republic of Korea; Department of Environment and Energy, Jeonbuk National University , Jeonju, Jeollabuk-do, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Jeonbuk National University , Jeonju, Jeollabuk-do, Republic of Korea; Department of Environment and Energy, Jeonbuk National University , Jeonju, Jeollabuk-do, Republic of KoreaNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , Princeton, NJ, United States of AmericaNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , Princeton, NJ, United States of AmericaNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , Princeton, NJ, United States of AmericaNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , Princeton, NJ, United States of AmericaThe extension of seasonal to interannual prediction of the physical climate system to include the marine ecosystem has a great potential to inform marine resource management strategies. Along the east coast of Africa, recent findings suggest that skillful Earth system model (ESM)-based chlorophyll predictions may enable anticipation of fisheries fluctuations. The mechanisms underlying skillful chlorophyll predictions, however, were not identified, eroding confidence in potential adaptive management steps. This study demonstrates that skillful chlorophyll predictions up to two years in advance arise from the successful simulation of westward-propagating off-equatorial Rossby waves in the Indian ocean. Upwelling associated with these waves supplies nutrients to the surface layer for the large coastal areas by generating north- and southward propagating waves at the east African coast. Further analysis shows that the off-equatorial Rossby wave is initially excited by wind stress forcing caused by El Niño/Southern Oscillation-Indian Ocean teleconnections.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d63marine biogeochemistryEarth system modelchlorophyll prediction |
| spellingShingle | Woojin Jeon Jong-Yeon Park Charles A Stock John P Dunne Xiaosong Yang Anthony Rosati Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coast Environmental Research Letters marine biogeochemistry Earth system model chlorophyll prediction |
| title | Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coast |
| title_full | Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coast |
| title_fullStr | Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coast |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coast |
| title_short | Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coast |
| title_sort | mechanisms driving esm based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east african coast |
| topic | marine biogeochemistry Earth system model chlorophyll prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d63 |
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