Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America
We investigate relationships between synoptic-scale atmospheric variability and the mass-balance of 13 Andean glaciers (located 16–55° S) using Pearson correlation coefficients (PCCs) and multiple regressions. We then train empirical glacier mass-balance models (EGMs) in a cross-validated multiple r...
| Автори: | , |
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| Формат: | Стаття |
| Мова: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2022-10-01
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| Серія: | Journal of Glaciology |
| Предмети: | |
| Онлайн доступ: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143022000065/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1827994353175363584 |
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| author | Sebastian G. Mutz Johannes Aschauer |
| author_facet | Sebastian G. Mutz Johannes Aschauer |
| author_sort | Sebastian G. Mutz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We investigate relationships between synoptic-scale atmospheric variability and the mass-balance of 13 Andean glaciers (located 16–55° S) using Pearson correlation coefficients (PCCs) and multiple regressions. We then train empirical glacier mass-balance models (EGMs) in a cross-validated multiple regression procedure for each glacier. We find four distinct glaciological zones with regard to their climatic controls: (1) The mass-balance of the Outer Tropics glaciers is linked to temperature and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (PCC ⩽ 0.6), (2) glaciers of the Desert Andes are mainly controlled by zonal wind intensity (PCC ⩽ 0.9) and the Antarctic Oscillation (PCC ⩽0.6), (3) the mass-balance of the Central Andes glaciers is primarily correlated with precipitation anomalies (PCC ⩽ 0.8), and (4) the glacier of the Fuegian Andes is controlled by winter precipitation (PCC ≈ 0.7) and summer temperature (PCC ≈ −0.9). Mass-balance data in the Lakes District and Patagonian Andes zones, where most glaciers are located, are too sparse for a robust detection of synoptic-scale climatic controls. The EGMs yield R2 values of ~ 0.45 on average and ⩽ 0.74 for the glaciers of the Desert Andes. The EGMs presented here do not consider glacier dynamics or geometry and are therefore only suitable for short-term predictions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T04:39:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-776d4082838f4b51b1d2e6d5a3977d41 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T04:39:38Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Glaciology |
| spelling | doaj.art-776d4082838f4b51b1d2e6d5a3977d412023-03-09T12:41:19ZengCambridge University PressJournal of Glaciology0022-14301727-56522022-10-016891292610.1017/jog.2022.6Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South AmericaSebastian G. Mutz0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8180-6150Johannes Aschauer1Department of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, GermanyDepartment of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, GermanyWe investigate relationships between synoptic-scale atmospheric variability and the mass-balance of 13 Andean glaciers (located 16–55° S) using Pearson correlation coefficients (PCCs) and multiple regressions. We then train empirical glacier mass-balance models (EGMs) in a cross-validated multiple regression procedure for each glacier. We find four distinct glaciological zones with regard to their climatic controls: (1) The mass-balance of the Outer Tropics glaciers is linked to temperature and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (PCC ⩽ 0.6), (2) glaciers of the Desert Andes are mainly controlled by zonal wind intensity (PCC ⩽ 0.9) and the Antarctic Oscillation (PCC ⩽0.6), (3) the mass-balance of the Central Andes glaciers is primarily correlated with precipitation anomalies (PCC ⩽ 0.8), and (4) the glacier of the Fuegian Andes is controlled by winter precipitation (PCC ≈ 0.7) and summer temperature (PCC ≈ −0.9). Mass-balance data in the Lakes District and Patagonian Andes zones, where most glaciers are located, are too sparse for a robust detection of synoptic-scale climatic controls. The EGMs yield R2 values of ~ 0.45 on average and ⩽ 0.74 for the glaciers of the Desert Andes. The EGMs presented here do not consider glacier dynamics or geometry and are therefore only suitable for short-term predictions.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143022000065/type/journal_articleClimate changeglacier mass-balanceglacier modellingmountain glaciers |
| spellingShingle | Sebastian G. Mutz Johannes Aschauer Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America Journal of Glaciology Climate change glacier mass-balance glacier modelling mountain glaciers |
| title | Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America |
| title_full | Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America |
| title_fullStr | Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America |
| title_full_unstemmed | Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America |
| title_short | Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America |
| title_sort | empirical glacier mass balance models for south america |
| topic | Climate change glacier mass-balance glacier modelling mountain glaciers |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143022000065/type/journal_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sebastiangmutz empiricalglaciermassbalancemodelsforsouthamerica AT johannesaschauer empiricalglaciermassbalancemodelsforsouthamerica |