Accuracy of cotton-planting forecasts assessed in the San Joaquin Valley
In the first evaluation of its kind, we found that the UC Cooperative Extension (UCCE) 5-day degree-day forecast for cotton-planting conditions performed well in Bakersfield and Fresno when compared with the actual, observed temperatures from 1998 to 2002. In most cases, t...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources
2004-07-01
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| Series: | California Agriculture |
| Online Access: | http://calag.ucanr.edu/archive/?article=ca.v058n03p164 |
| _version_ | 1827203128957599744 |
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| author | Douglas Munier Peter Goodell Joyce Strand |
| author_facet | Douglas Munier Peter Goodell Joyce Strand |
| author_sort | Douglas Munier |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the first evaluation of its kind, we found that the UC Cooperative Extension (UCCE)
5-day degree-day forecast for cotton-planting conditions performed well in Bakersfield
and Fresno when compared with the actual, observed temperatures from 1998 to 2002.
In most cases, the forecast provided timely advice during the critical cotton-planting
period. On average, only 7% of the forecasts failed to predict unfavorable conditions.
Better-than-expected weather occurred 9% of the time when unfavorable conditions were
forecast. On average during the 22 planting days of March (beginning March 10, the
first allowable planting date in the San Joaquin Valley), 2.5 days (11%) were incorrectly
forecast to have better-than-unfavorable planting conditions. In April, the cottonplanting
forecasts were more reliable, with only 1 day out of 30 (3%), on average, that may
have required replanting because of unpredicted, unfavorable conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2025-03-21T11:31:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-77a75cb26b764bde85f90b8d23d26fe8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0008-0845 2160-8091 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-03-21T11:31:34Z |
| publishDate | 2004-07-01 |
| publisher | University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources |
| record_format | Article |
| series | California Agriculture |
| spelling | doaj.art-77a75cb26b764bde85f90b8d23d26fe82024-07-02T06:21:15ZengUniversity of California Agriculture and Natural ResourcesCalifornia Agriculture0008-08452160-80912004-07-0158316416810.3733/ca.v058n03p16410.3733/cav058n03_14Accuracy of cotton-planting forecasts assessed in the San Joaquin ValleyDouglas Munier0Peter Goodell1Joyce Strand2D.J. Munier is Farm Advisor, UC Cooperative Extension, Glenn CountyP.B. Goodell is IPM Advisor, Kearney Agricultural Center, UC Statewide IPM ProgramJ.F. Strand is Information Systems Manager and Agricultural Meteorologist, UC Statewide IPM Program.In the first evaluation of its kind, we found that the UC Cooperative Extension (UCCE) 5-day degree-day forecast for cotton-planting conditions performed well in Bakersfield and Fresno when compared with the actual, observed temperatures from 1998 to 2002. In most cases, the forecast provided timely advice during the critical cotton-planting period. On average, only 7% of the forecasts failed to predict unfavorable conditions. Better-than-expected weather occurred 9% of the time when unfavorable conditions were forecast. On average during the 22 planting days of March (beginning March 10, the first allowable planting date in the San Joaquin Valley), 2.5 days (11%) were incorrectly forecast to have better-than-unfavorable planting conditions. In April, the cottonplanting forecasts were more reliable, with only 1 day out of 30 (3%), on average, that may have required replanting because of unpredicted, unfavorable conditions.http://calag.ucanr.edu/archive/?article=ca.v058n03p164 |
| spellingShingle | Douglas Munier Peter Goodell Joyce Strand Accuracy of cotton-planting forecasts assessed in the San Joaquin Valley California Agriculture |
| title | Accuracy of cotton-planting forecasts assessed in the San Joaquin Valley |
| title_full | Accuracy of cotton-planting forecasts assessed in the San Joaquin Valley |
| title_fullStr | Accuracy of cotton-planting forecasts assessed in the San Joaquin Valley |
| title_full_unstemmed | Accuracy of cotton-planting forecasts assessed in the San Joaquin Valley |
| title_short | Accuracy of cotton-planting forecasts assessed in the San Joaquin Valley |
| title_sort | accuracy of cotton planting forecasts assessed in the san joaquin valley |
| url | http://calag.ucanr.edu/archive/?article=ca.v058n03p164 |
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