Investing in the Prevention of Communicable Disease Outbreaks: Fiscal Health Modelling—The Tool of Choice for Assessing Public Finance Sustainability
National strategies for preparedness for future outbreaks of COVID-19 often include timely preparedness with vaccines. Fiscal health modelling (FHM) has recently been brought forward as an additional analysis by defining the public economic impact from a governmental perspective. As governments are...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Vaccines |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/11/4/823 |
| _version_ | 1797603290631897088 |
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| author | Simon van der Schans Marcel H. Schöttler Jurjen van der Schans Mark P. Connolly Maarten J. Postma Cornelis Boersma |
| author_facet | Simon van der Schans Marcel H. Schöttler Jurjen van der Schans Mark P. Connolly Maarten J. Postma Cornelis Boersma |
| author_sort | Simon van der Schans |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | National strategies for preparedness for future outbreaks of COVID-19 often include timely preparedness with vaccines. Fiscal health modelling (FHM) has recently been brought forward as an additional analysis by defining the public economic impact from a governmental perspective. As governments are the main decision-makers concerning pandemic preparedness, this study aimed to develop an FHM framework for infectious diseases in the Netherlands. Based on the Dutch COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 and 2021 and publicly available data on tax income and gross domestic product (GDP), the fiscal impact of COVID-19 was assessed using two approaches. Approach I: Prospective modelling of future fiscal impact based on publicly available laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases; and Approach II: Retrospective assessment of the extrapolated tax and benefit income and GDP. Approach I estimated the consequences that can be causally linked to the population counts reducing income taxes by EUR 266 million. The total fiscal loss amounted to EUR 164 million over 2 years (excluding pension payments averted). The total losses in terms of tax income (2020 and 2021) and GDP (2020) (Approach II), were estimated at, respectively, EUR 13.58 billion and EUR 96.3 billion. This study analysed different aspects of a communicable disease outbreak and its influence on government public accounts. The choice of the two presented approaches depends on the perspective of the analysis, the time horizon of the analysis and the availability of data. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T04:27:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-77b7e978c44c4708b85fda9d6a12ade1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T04:27:13Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-77b7e978c44c4708b85fda9d6a12ade12023-11-17T21:42:15ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2023-04-0111482310.3390/vaccines11040823Investing in the Prevention of Communicable Disease Outbreaks: Fiscal Health Modelling—The Tool of Choice for Assessing Public Finance SustainabilitySimon van der Schans0Marcel H. Schöttler1Jurjen van der Schans2Mark P. Connolly3Maarten J. Postma4Cornelis Boersma5Health-Ecore B.V., 3700 AA Zeist, The NetherlandsHealth-Ecore B.V., 3700 AA Zeist, The NetherlandsHealth-Ecore B.V., 3700 AA Zeist, The NetherlandsUnit of PharmacoTherapy, Epidemiology and Economics, Department of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, 9713 AV Groningen, The NetherlandsHealth-Ecore B.V., 3700 AA Zeist, The NetherlandsHealth-Ecore B.V., 3700 AA Zeist, The NetherlandsNational strategies for preparedness for future outbreaks of COVID-19 often include timely preparedness with vaccines. Fiscal health modelling (FHM) has recently been brought forward as an additional analysis by defining the public economic impact from a governmental perspective. As governments are the main decision-makers concerning pandemic preparedness, this study aimed to develop an FHM framework for infectious diseases in the Netherlands. Based on the Dutch COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 and 2021 and publicly available data on tax income and gross domestic product (GDP), the fiscal impact of COVID-19 was assessed using two approaches. Approach I: Prospective modelling of future fiscal impact based on publicly available laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases; and Approach II: Retrospective assessment of the extrapolated tax and benefit income and GDP. Approach I estimated the consequences that can be causally linked to the population counts reducing income taxes by EUR 266 million. The total fiscal loss amounted to EUR 164 million over 2 years (excluding pension payments averted). The total losses in terms of tax income (2020 and 2021) and GDP (2020) (Approach II), were estimated at, respectively, EUR 13.58 billion and EUR 96.3 billion. This study analysed different aspects of a communicable disease outbreak and its influence on government public accounts. The choice of the two presented approaches depends on the perspective of the analysis, the time horizon of the analysis and the availability of data.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/11/4/823fiscal health modellinggovernmental perspectivetax revenuesocial benefitsinfectious diseaseCOVID-19 |
| spellingShingle | Simon van der Schans Marcel H. Schöttler Jurjen van der Schans Mark P. Connolly Maarten J. Postma Cornelis Boersma Investing in the Prevention of Communicable Disease Outbreaks: Fiscal Health Modelling—The Tool of Choice for Assessing Public Finance Sustainability Vaccines fiscal health modelling governmental perspective tax revenue social benefits infectious disease COVID-19 |
| title | Investing in the Prevention of Communicable Disease Outbreaks: Fiscal Health Modelling—The Tool of Choice for Assessing Public Finance Sustainability |
| title_full | Investing in the Prevention of Communicable Disease Outbreaks: Fiscal Health Modelling—The Tool of Choice for Assessing Public Finance Sustainability |
| title_fullStr | Investing in the Prevention of Communicable Disease Outbreaks: Fiscal Health Modelling—The Tool of Choice for Assessing Public Finance Sustainability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investing in the Prevention of Communicable Disease Outbreaks: Fiscal Health Modelling—The Tool of Choice for Assessing Public Finance Sustainability |
| title_short | Investing in the Prevention of Communicable Disease Outbreaks: Fiscal Health Modelling—The Tool of Choice for Assessing Public Finance Sustainability |
| title_sort | investing in the prevention of communicable disease outbreaks fiscal health modelling the tool of choice for assessing public finance sustainability |
| topic | fiscal health modelling governmental perspective tax revenue social benefits infectious disease COVID-19 |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/11/4/823 |
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