Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point
Parameter uncertainty analysis of climate models has become a standard approach for model validation and testing their sensitivity. Here we present a novel approach that allows one to estimate the robustness of a bifurcation point in a multi-parameter space. In this study we investigate a box model...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2006-01-01
|
| Series: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| Online Access: | http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/13/531/2006/npg-13-531-2006.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818479652747870208 |
|---|---|
| author | B. Knopf M. Flechsig K. Zickfeld |
| author_facet | B. Knopf M. Flechsig K. Zickfeld |
| author_sort | B. Knopf |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Parameter uncertainty analysis of climate models has become a standard approach for model validation and testing their sensitivity. Here we present a novel approach that allows one to estimate the robustness of a bifurcation point in a multi-parameter space. In this study we investigate a box model of the Indian summer monsoon that exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation against those parameters that govern the heat balance of the system. The bifurcation brings about a change from a wet summer monsoon regime to a regime that is characterised by low precipitation. To analyse the robustness of the bifurcation point itself and its location in parameter space, we perform a multi-parameter uncertainty analysis by applying qualitative, Monte Carlo and deterministic methods that are provided by a multi-run simulation environment. <P> Our results show that the occurrence of the bifurcation point is robust over a wide range of parameter values. The position of the bifurcation, however, is found to be sensitive on these specific parameter choices. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T11:13:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-77b7f2a6e9a44588be5951ca16deae55 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1023-5809 1607-7946 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T11:13:36Z |
| publishDate | 2006-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| spelling | doaj.art-77b7f2a6e9a44588be5951ca16deae552022-12-22T01:51:18ZengCopernicus PublicationsNonlinear Processes in Geophysics1023-58091607-79462006-01-01135531540Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation pointB. KnopfM. FlechsigK. ZickfeldParameter uncertainty analysis of climate models has become a standard approach for model validation and testing their sensitivity. Here we present a novel approach that allows one to estimate the robustness of a bifurcation point in a multi-parameter space. In this study we investigate a box model of the Indian summer monsoon that exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation against those parameters that govern the heat balance of the system. The bifurcation brings about a change from a wet summer monsoon regime to a regime that is characterised by low precipitation. To analyse the robustness of the bifurcation point itself and its location in parameter space, we perform a multi-parameter uncertainty analysis by applying qualitative, Monte Carlo and deterministic methods that are provided by a multi-run simulation environment. <P> Our results show that the occurrence of the bifurcation point is robust over a wide range of parameter values. The position of the bifurcation, however, is found to be sensitive on these specific parameter choices.http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/13/531/2006/npg-13-531-2006.pdf |
| spellingShingle | B. Knopf M. Flechsig K. Zickfeld Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| title | Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point |
| title_full | Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point |
| title_fullStr | Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point |
| title_short | Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point |
| title_sort | multi parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point |
| url | http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/13/531/2006/npg-13-531-2006.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bknopf multiparameteruncertaintyanalysisofabifurcationpoint AT mflechsig multiparameteruncertaintyanalysisofabifurcationpoint AT kzickfeld multiparameteruncertaintyanalysisofabifurcationpoint |