Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites
<p>Forest ecosystems are already responding to changing environmental conditions that are driven by increased atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentrations. These developments affect how societies can utilise and benefit from th...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-05-01
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| Series: | Biogeosciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/2681/2020/bg-17-2681-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811222064720248832 |
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| author | J. Mäkelä F. Minunno T. Aalto A. Mäkelä T. Markkanen M. Peltoniemi |
| author_facet | J. Mäkelä F. Minunno T. Aalto A. Mäkelä T. Markkanen M. Peltoniemi |
| author_sort | J. Mäkelä |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Forest ecosystems are already responding to changing environmental conditions that are driven by increased atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentrations. These developments affect how societies can utilise and benefit from the woodland areas in the future, be it for example climate change mitigation as carbon sinks, lumber for wood industry, or preserved for nature tourism and recreational activities. We assess the effect and the relative magnitude of different uncertainty sources in ecosystem model simulations from the year 1980 to 2100 for two Finnish boreal forest sites. The models used in this study are the land ecosystem model JSBACH and the forest growth model PREBAS. The considered uncertainty sources for both models are model parameters and four prescribed climates with two RCP (representative concentration pathway) scenarios. Usually, model parameter uncertainty is not included in these types of uncertainty studies. PREBAS simulations also include two forest management scenarios. We assess the effect of these sources of variation at four different points in time on several ecosystem indicators, e.g. gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration, soil moisture, recurrence of drought, length of the vegetation active period (VAP), length of the snow melting period and the stand volume. The uncertainty induced by the climate models remains roughly the same throughout the simulations and is overtaken by the RCP scenario impact halfway through the experiment. The management actions are the most dominant uncertainty factors for Hyytiälä and as important as RCP scenarios at the end of the simulations, but they contribute only half as much for Sodankylä. The parameter uncertainty is the least influential of the examined uncertainty sources, but it is also the most elusive to estimate due to non-linear and adverse effects on the simulated ecosystem indicators. Our analysis underlines the importance of carefully considering the implementation of forest use when simulating future ecosystem conditions, as human impact is evident and even increasing in boreal forested regions.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T08:10:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-77d00f7ffff34fb3a81d5b062c0b44f3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1726-4170 1726-4189 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T08:10:16Z |
| publishDate | 2020-05-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Biogeosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-77d00f7ffff34fb3a81d5b062c0b44f32022-12-22T03:40:59ZengCopernicus PublicationsBiogeosciences1726-41701726-41892020-05-01172681270010.5194/bg-17-2681-2020Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sitesJ. Mäkelä0F. Minunno1T. Aalto2A. Mäkelä3T. Markkanen4M. Peltoniemi5Climate System Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, FinlandDepartment of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, FinlandClimate System Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, FinlandDepartment of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, FinlandClimate System Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, FinlandNatural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), P.O. Box 2, 00791 Helsinki, Finland<p>Forest ecosystems are already responding to changing environmental conditions that are driven by increased atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentrations. These developments affect how societies can utilise and benefit from the woodland areas in the future, be it for example climate change mitigation as carbon sinks, lumber for wood industry, or preserved for nature tourism and recreational activities. We assess the effect and the relative magnitude of different uncertainty sources in ecosystem model simulations from the year 1980 to 2100 for two Finnish boreal forest sites. The models used in this study are the land ecosystem model JSBACH and the forest growth model PREBAS. The considered uncertainty sources for both models are model parameters and four prescribed climates with two RCP (representative concentration pathway) scenarios. Usually, model parameter uncertainty is not included in these types of uncertainty studies. PREBAS simulations also include two forest management scenarios. We assess the effect of these sources of variation at four different points in time on several ecosystem indicators, e.g. gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration, soil moisture, recurrence of drought, length of the vegetation active period (VAP), length of the snow melting period and the stand volume. The uncertainty induced by the climate models remains roughly the same throughout the simulations and is overtaken by the RCP scenario impact halfway through the experiment. The management actions are the most dominant uncertainty factors for Hyytiälä and as important as RCP scenarios at the end of the simulations, but they contribute only half as much for Sodankylä. The parameter uncertainty is the least influential of the examined uncertainty sources, but it is also the most elusive to estimate due to non-linear and adverse effects on the simulated ecosystem indicators. Our analysis underlines the importance of carefully considering the implementation of forest use when simulating future ecosystem conditions, as human impact is evident and even increasing in boreal forested regions.</p>https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/2681/2020/bg-17-2681-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. Mäkelä F. Minunno T. Aalto A. Mäkelä T. Markkanen M. Peltoniemi Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites Biogeosciences |
| title | Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites |
| title_full | Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites |
| title_short | Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites |
| title_sort | sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters prescribed climate drivers rcp scenarios and forest management actions for two finnish boreal forest sites |
| url | https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/2681/2020/bg-17-2681-2020.pdf |
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