Timing matters: Sampling frequency for early-warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lake
Shallow lakes are known for sudden shifts between a desired clear and an undesired turbid state despite only incremental changes in the underlying drivers. Such sudden shifts are a major challenge for lake managers who can be confronted with abrupt losses of desired ecosystem services without easily...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23005666 |
| _version_ | 1797802856149942272 |
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| author | Alena S. Gsell Sven Teurlincx Rita Adrian Annette B.G. Janssen |
| author_facet | Alena S. Gsell Sven Teurlincx Rita Adrian Annette B.G. Janssen |
| author_sort | Alena S. Gsell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Shallow lakes are known for sudden shifts between a desired clear and an undesired turbid state despite only incremental changes in the underlying drivers. Such sudden shifts are a major challenge for lake managers who can be confronted with abrupt losses of desired ecosystem services without easily observable warning signals. Predictive tools for the loss of ecosystem resilience are vital to respond with timely mitigation measures and avert a shift to the undesired state. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) have faithfully preceded critical transitions in minimal models but have proven more elusive in real-world data, suggesting a mismatch between measurement strategy and the detectability of EWIs. Here, we capitalize on data simulated using the aquatic ecosystem model PCLake+ which represents real systems more closely than reductionistic models and which allows the generation of critical transitions in response to gradual changes in phosphorus load. We tested the effect of different sampling intervals (daily to yearly) on the detection of three often-used EWIs across a range of food web and nutrient-related variables. Moreover, we included one integrated sampling interval (yearly average of daily measurements) to represent time-integrated measurements. EWIs generally performed better at shorter intervals (daily, weekly) but integrated measurements over the year also proved suitable to detect oncoming state shifts. We propose that lake managers should aim for high-frequency measurements of variables that can be easily and cheaply measured (e.g. oxygen, Secchi) or, alternatively, focus on integrated approaches using passive samplers or sedimented material. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:13:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-77dfacf55e144d7399ca9bddc6a63afd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:13:06Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-77dfacf55e144d7399ca9bddc6a63afd2023-06-16T05:08:45ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2023-09-01153110424Timing matters: Sampling frequency for early-warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lakeAlena S. Gsell0Sven Teurlincx1Rita Adrian2Annette B.G. Janssen3Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands; Corresponding author at: Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Droevendaalsesteeg 10, 6708PB Wageningen, The NetherlandsDepartment of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The NetherlandsCommunity and Ecosystem Ecology, Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany; Department of Biology, Chemistry and Pharmacy, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, GermanyWater Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The NetherlandsShallow lakes are known for sudden shifts between a desired clear and an undesired turbid state despite only incremental changes in the underlying drivers. Such sudden shifts are a major challenge for lake managers who can be confronted with abrupt losses of desired ecosystem services without easily observable warning signals. Predictive tools for the loss of ecosystem resilience are vital to respond with timely mitigation measures and avert a shift to the undesired state. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) have faithfully preceded critical transitions in minimal models but have proven more elusive in real-world data, suggesting a mismatch between measurement strategy and the detectability of EWIs. Here, we capitalize on data simulated using the aquatic ecosystem model PCLake+ which represents real systems more closely than reductionistic models and which allows the generation of critical transitions in response to gradual changes in phosphorus load. We tested the effect of different sampling intervals (daily to yearly) on the detection of three often-used EWIs across a range of food web and nutrient-related variables. Moreover, we included one integrated sampling interval (yearly average of daily measurements) to represent time-integrated measurements. EWIs generally performed better at shorter intervals (daily, weekly) but integrated measurements over the year also proved suitable to detect oncoming state shifts. We propose that lake managers should aim for high-frequency measurements of variables that can be easily and cheaply measured (e.g. oxygen, Secchi) or, alternatively, focus on integrated approaches using passive samplers or sedimented material.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23005666Critical transitionEcosystem modelPCLake+Regime shiftSampling frequency |
| spellingShingle | Alena S. Gsell Sven Teurlincx Rita Adrian Annette B.G. Janssen Timing matters: Sampling frequency for early-warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lake Ecological Indicators Critical transition Ecosystem model PCLake+ Regime shift Sampling frequency |
| title | Timing matters: Sampling frequency for early-warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lake |
| title_full | Timing matters: Sampling frequency for early-warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lake |
| title_fullStr | Timing matters: Sampling frequency for early-warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lake |
| title_full_unstemmed | Timing matters: Sampling frequency for early-warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lake |
| title_short | Timing matters: Sampling frequency for early-warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lake |
| title_sort | timing matters sampling frequency for early warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lake |
| topic | Critical transition Ecosystem model PCLake+ Regime shift Sampling frequency |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23005666 |
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