Causes of climate change over the historical record
This review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external forcing and to climate variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A synthesis of results from attribution studies based on p...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557 |
| _version_ | 1797748000901038080 |
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| author | Gabriele C Hegerl Stefan Brönnimann Tim Cowan Andrew R Friedman Ed Hawkins Carley Iles Wolfgang Müller Andrew Schurer Sabine Undorf |
| author_facet | Gabriele C Hegerl Stefan Brönnimann Tim Cowan Andrew R Friedman Ed Hawkins Carley Iles Wolfgang Müller Andrew Schurer Sabine Undorf |
| author_sort | Gabriele C Hegerl |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external forcing and to climate variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A synthesis of results from attribution studies based on palaeoclimatic reconstructions covering the recent few centuries to the 20th century, and instrumental data shows how greenhouse gases began to cause warming since the beginning of industrialization, causing trends that are attributable to greenhouse gases by 1900 in proxy-based temperature reconstructions. Their influence increased over time, dominating recent trends. However, other forcings have caused substantial deviations from this emerging greenhouse warming trend: volcanic eruptions have caused strong cooling following a period of unusually heavy activity, such as in the early 19th century; or warming during periods of low activity, such as in the early-to-mid 20th century. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing most likely masked some global greenhouse warming over the 20th century, especially since the accelerated increase in sulphate aerosol emissions starting around 1950. Based on modelling and attribution studies, aerosol forcing has also influenced regional temperatures, caused long-term changes in monsoons and imprinted on Atlantic variability. Multi-decadal variations in atmospheric modes can also cause long-term climate variability, as apparent for the example of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and have influenced Atlantic ocean variability. Long-term precipitation changes are more difficult to attribute to external forcing due to spatial sparseness of data and noisiness of precipitation changes, but the observed pattern of precipitation response to warming from station data supports climate model simulated changes and with it, predictions. The long-term warming has also led to significant differences in daily variability as, for example, visible in long European station data. Extreme events over the historical record provide valuable samples of possible extreme events and their mechanisms. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-782c763b82aa4ccdb2e0f6bccdbbedd1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:39Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-782c763b82aa4ccdb2e0f6bccdbbedd12023-08-09T14:44:15ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-01141212300610.1088/1748-9326/ab4557Causes of climate change over the historical recordGabriele C Hegerl0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4159-1295Stefan Brönnimann1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9502-7991Tim Cowan2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8376-4879Andrew R Friedman3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6994-2037Ed Hawkins4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677Carley Iles5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3504-2107Wolfgang Müller6Andrew Schurer7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9176-3622Sabine Undorf8https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7026-080XSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, United KingdomOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern , Bern, SwitzerlandUniversity of Southern Queensland & Bureau of Meteorology , Melbourne, AustraliaSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, United KingdomNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading , United KingdomLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay , F-91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceMax-Planck Institute for Meteorology , Hamburg, GermanySchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, United KingdomSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, United KingdomThis review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external forcing and to climate variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A synthesis of results from attribution studies based on palaeoclimatic reconstructions covering the recent few centuries to the 20th century, and instrumental data shows how greenhouse gases began to cause warming since the beginning of industrialization, causing trends that are attributable to greenhouse gases by 1900 in proxy-based temperature reconstructions. Their influence increased over time, dominating recent trends. However, other forcings have caused substantial deviations from this emerging greenhouse warming trend: volcanic eruptions have caused strong cooling following a period of unusually heavy activity, such as in the early 19th century; or warming during periods of low activity, such as in the early-to-mid 20th century. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing most likely masked some global greenhouse warming over the 20th century, especially since the accelerated increase in sulphate aerosol emissions starting around 1950. Based on modelling and attribution studies, aerosol forcing has also influenced regional temperatures, caused long-term changes in monsoons and imprinted on Atlantic variability. Multi-decadal variations in atmospheric modes can also cause long-term climate variability, as apparent for the example of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and have influenced Atlantic ocean variability. Long-term precipitation changes are more difficult to attribute to external forcing due to spatial sparseness of data and noisiness of precipitation changes, but the observed pattern of precipitation response to warming from station data supports climate model simulated changes and with it, predictions. The long-term warming has also led to significant differences in daily variability as, for example, visible in long European station data. Extreme events over the historical record provide valuable samples of possible extreme events and their mechanisms.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557climate changeinstrumental recordattributionextreme eventsprecipitation |
| spellingShingle | Gabriele C Hegerl Stefan Brönnimann Tim Cowan Andrew R Friedman Ed Hawkins Carley Iles Wolfgang Müller Andrew Schurer Sabine Undorf Causes of climate change over the historical record Environmental Research Letters climate change instrumental record attribution extreme events precipitation |
| title | Causes of climate change over the historical record |
| title_full | Causes of climate change over the historical record |
| title_fullStr | Causes of climate change over the historical record |
| title_full_unstemmed | Causes of climate change over the historical record |
| title_short | Causes of climate change over the historical record |
| title_sort | causes of climate change over the historical record |
| topic | climate change instrumental record attribution extreme events precipitation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557 |
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