Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing
Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124009 |
| _version_ | 1797747932338847744 |
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| author | R Barbero J T Abatzoglou E A Steel Narasimhan K Larkin |
| author_facet | R Barbero J T Abatzoglou E A Steel Narasimhan K Larkin |
| author_sort | R Barbero |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7830d03e44e344ac9e04099a4c1d185f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:40Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-7830d03e44e344ac9e04099a4c1d185f2023-08-09T14:45:52ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262014-01-0191212400910.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124009Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcingR Barbero0J T Abatzoglou1E A Steel2Narasimhan K Larkin3Department of Geography, University of Idaho , Moscow, ID, USADepartment of Geography, University of Idaho , Moscow, ID, USAStatistics, Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA, USAPacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, US Forest Service, Seattle, WA, USAVery large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124009very large-firesclimate-fireUnited Statestimescales |
| spellingShingle | R Barbero J T Abatzoglou E A Steel Narasimhan K Larkin Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing Environmental Research Letters very large-fires climate-fire United States timescales |
| title | Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing |
| title_full | Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing |
| title_fullStr | Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing |
| title_short | Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing |
| title_sort | modeling very large fire occurrences over the continental united states from weather and climate forcing |
| topic | very large-fires climate-fire United States timescales |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124009 |
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