Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions
Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local sc...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034031 |
| _version_ | 1797748067695329280 |
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| author | David A Stainforth Sandra C Chapman Nicholas W Watkins |
| author_facet | David A Stainforth Sandra C Chapman Nicholas W Watkins |
| author_sort | David A Stainforth |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observations of climate change, providing maps of the changing shape of climatic temperature distributions across Europe since 1950. The provision of such information from observations is valuable to support decisions designed to be robust in today’s climate, while also providing data against which climate forecasting methods can be judged and interpreted. The general statement that the hottest summer days are warming faster than the coolest is made decision relevant by exposing how the regions of greatest warming are quantile and threshold dependent. In a band from Northern France to Denmark, where the response is greatest, the hottest days in the temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2 ° C, over four times the global mean change over the same period. In winter the coldest nights are warming fastest, particularly in Scandinavia. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-786c2cd5cef644c09127ccc5367fd533 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:40Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-786c2cd5cef644c09127ccc5367fd5332023-08-09T14:40:29ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262013-01-018303403110.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034031Mapping climate change in European temperature distributionsDavid A Stainforth0Sandra C Chapman1Nicholas W Watkins2Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics , Houghton Street, London, UK; Centre for the Analysis of Timeseries, London School of Economics , Houghton Street, London, UK; Department of Physics, University of Warwick , Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford OX1 3QY, UKDepartment of Physics, University of Warwick , Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tromsø , NO-9037 Tromsø, NorwayCentre for the Analysis of Timeseries, London School of Economics , Houghton Street, London, UK; Department of Physics, University of Warwick , Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; British Antarctic Survey , High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UKClimate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observations of climate change, providing maps of the changing shape of climatic temperature distributions across Europe since 1950. The provision of such information from observations is valuable to support decisions designed to be robust in today’s climate, while also providing data against which climate forecasting methods can be judged and interpreted. The general statement that the hottest summer days are warming faster than the coolest is made decision relevant by exposing how the regions of greatest warming are quantile and threshold dependent. In a band from Northern France to Denmark, where the response is greatest, the hottest days in the temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2 ° C, over four times the global mean change over the same period. In winter the coldest nights are warming fastest, particularly in Scandinavia.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/03403192.60.Ry92.70.Kb92.70.Mnclimatethresholdsdistributions |
| spellingShingle | David A Stainforth Sandra C Chapman Nicholas W Watkins Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions Environmental Research Letters 92.60.Ry 92.70.Kb 92.70.Mn climate thresholds distributions |
| title | Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions |
| title_full | Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions |
| title_fullStr | Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions |
| title_short | Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions |
| title_sort | mapping climate change in european temperature distributions |
| topic | 92.60.Ry 92.70.Kb 92.70.Mn climate thresholds distributions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034031 |
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