Monthly Maximum load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimani Governorate Using Different Weather Conditions Based on Artificial Neural Network Model
Medium-term forecasting is an important category of electric load forecasting that covers a time span of up to 1 year ahead. It suits outage and maintenance planning, as well as load switching operation. There is an on-going attention toward putting new approaches to the task. Recently, artificial n...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Human Development
2020-07-01
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| Series: | UHD Journal of Science and Technology |
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| Online Access: | http://journals.uhd.edu.iq/index.php/uhdjst/article/view/726/557 |
| _version_ | 1811286312355889152 |
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| author | Najat Hassan Abdulkareem |
| author_facet | Najat Hassan Abdulkareem |
| author_sort | Najat Hassan Abdulkareem |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Medium-term forecasting is an important category of electric load forecasting that covers a time span of up to 1 year ahead. It suits outage and maintenance planning, as well as load switching operation. There is an on-going attention toward putting new approaches to the task. Recently, artificial neural network has played a successful role in various applications. This paper is presents a monthly peak load demand forecasting for Sulaimani (located in North Iraq) using the most widely used traditional method based on an artificial natural network, the performance of the model is tested on the actual historical monthly demand of the governorate for the years 2014–2018. The standard mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) method is used to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting models, the results obtained show a very good estimation of the load. The MAPE is 0.056. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:57:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7899f8a5867049899595ae9b986734e3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2521-4209 2521-4217 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:57:49Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | University of Human Development |
| record_format | Article |
| series | UHD Journal of Science and Technology |
| spelling | doaj.art-7899f8a5867049899595ae9b986734e32022-12-22T03:05:35ZengUniversity of Human DevelopmentUHD Journal of Science and Technology2521-42092521-42172020-07-01421017https://doi.org/10.21928/uhdjst.v4n2y2020.pp10-17Monthly Maximum load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimani Governorate Using Different Weather Conditions Based on Artificial Neural Network ModelNajat Hassan Abdulkareem0MoEl (Ministry of Electricity-KRG), Electricity control center, Sulaimani/IraqMedium-term forecasting is an important category of electric load forecasting that covers a time span of up to 1 year ahead. It suits outage and maintenance planning, as well as load switching operation. There is an on-going attention toward putting new approaches to the task. Recently, artificial neural network has played a successful role in various applications. This paper is presents a monthly peak load demand forecasting for Sulaimani (located in North Iraq) using the most widely used traditional method based on an artificial natural network, the performance of the model is tested on the actual historical monthly demand of the governorate for the years 2014–2018. The standard mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) method is used to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting models, the results obtained show a very good estimation of the load. The MAPE is 0.056.http://journals.uhd.edu.iq/index.php/uhdjst/article/view/726/557actual loadartificial neural networkmidterm monthly load forecastmultilayer perceptronpredicted load. yearly ahead |
| spellingShingle | Najat Hassan Abdulkareem Monthly Maximum load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimani Governorate Using Different Weather Conditions Based on Artificial Neural Network Model UHD Journal of Science and Technology actual load artificial neural network midterm monthly load forecast multilayer perceptron predicted load. yearly ahead |
| title | Monthly Maximum load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimani Governorate Using Different Weather Conditions Based on Artificial Neural Network Model |
| title_full | Monthly Maximum load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimani Governorate Using Different Weather Conditions Based on Artificial Neural Network Model |
| title_fullStr | Monthly Maximum load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimani Governorate Using Different Weather Conditions Based on Artificial Neural Network Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Monthly Maximum load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimani Governorate Using Different Weather Conditions Based on Artificial Neural Network Model |
| title_short | Monthly Maximum load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimani Governorate Using Different Weather Conditions Based on Artificial Neural Network Model |
| title_sort | monthly maximum load demand forecasting for sulaimani governorate using different weather conditions based on artificial neural network model |
| topic | actual load artificial neural network midterm monthly load forecast multilayer perceptron predicted load. yearly ahead |
| url | http://journals.uhd.edu.iq/index.php/uhdjst/article/view/726/557 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT najathassanabdulkareem monthlymaximumloaddemandforecastingforsulaimanigovernorateusingdifferentweatherconditionsbasedonartificialneuralnetworkmodel |