Multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space and ecological effects based on shared socioeconomic pathways in Zhengzhou, China
With the rapid development of the economy, China’s urban area has faced dual pressure from the population and land expansion, which has led to a deterioration of the ecological environment. Conflicts between regional production, living and ecological spaces (PLES) have intensified. In this context,...
| Autori principali: | , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Articolo |
| Lingua: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-04-01
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| Serie: | Ecological Indicators |
| Soggetti: | |
| Accesso online: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22002217 |
| _version_ | 1828914595646930944 |
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| author | Xintong Jiang Shiyan Zhai Huan Liu Jing Chen Yueyue Zhu Zheng Wang |
| author_facet | Xintong Jiang Shiyan Zhai Huan Liu Jing Chen Yueyue Zhu Zheng Wang |
| author_sort | Xintong Jiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | With the rapid development of the economy, China’s urban area has faced dual pressure from the population and land expansion, which has led to a deterioration of the ecological environment. Conflicts between regional production, living and ecological spaces (PLES) have intensified. In this context, rational PLES planning is of great importance for promoting sustainable urban development. However, due to the difficulties in simulating the spatiotemporal distribution of urban PLES according to future socioeconomic development scenarios, effective evaluation of the ecological effects of PLES at the city level remains challenging. In this study, we presented a scenario-based PLES ecological effects assessment framework, integrating a Future Land Use Simulation Model (FLUS), Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and an Eco-environmental Effect Method, to analyse the patterns of spatiotemporal changes at the urban-level PLES and assess its potential ecological effects in Zhengzhou, China. The results showed that from 2025 to 2100, according to scenarios SSPs1, SSPs 2, SSPs 3 and SSPs 5, production space is gradually declining, living space is clearly expanding, and ecological space is continuously decreasing, except for SSPs4. Under the five SSPs, the spatial distribution pattern of PLES is relatively consistent. Living space is mainly distributed in the central urban area. Ecological space is concentrated in the western region of Zhengzhou city, and production space is widespread and scattered throughout the study area. In 2035, the spatial distribution of the eco-environmental quality index is uneven. High eco-environmental area is located in the southwest and low eco-environmental area is located in the middle of Zhengzhou city. The main reason for the deterioration of the eco-environmental quality under five different SSPs scenarios was that agricultural productive land and water ecological land are occupied by urban living land. This research will provide a reference for future urban sustainable development and the ecological civilization construction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T19:58:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-78b9315b53e346ba901b22de27b12355 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T19:58:28Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-78b9315b53e346ba901b22de27b123552022-12-21T23:33:15ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2022-04-01137108750Multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space and ecological effects based on shared socioeconomic pathways in Zhengzhou, ChinaXintong Jiang0Shiyan Zhai1Huan Liu2Jing Chen3Yueyue Zhu4Zheng Wang5Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China; Corresponding author.Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, ChinaWith the rapid development of the economy, China’s urban area has faced dual pressure from the population and land expansion, which has led to a deterioration of the ecological environment. Conflicts between regional production, living and ecological spaces (PLES) have intensified. In this context, rational PLES planning is of great importance for promoting sustainable urban development. However, due to the difficulties in simulating the spatiotemporal distribution of urban PLES according to future socioeconomic development scenarios, effective evaluation of the ecological effects of PLES at the city level remains challenging. In this study, we presented a scenario-based PLES ecological effects assessment framework, integrating a Future Land Use Simulation Model (FLUS), Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and an Eco-environmental Effect Method, to analyse the patterns of spatiotemporal changes at the urban-level PLES and assess its potential ecological effects in Zhengzhou, China. The results showed that from 2025 to 2100, according to scenarios SSPs1, SSPs 2, SSPs 3 and SSPs 5, production space is gradually declining, living space is clearly expanding, and ecological space is continuously decreasing, except for SSPs4. Under the five SSPs, the spatial distribution pattern of PLES is relatively consistent. Living space is mainly distributed in the central urban area. Ecological space is concentrated in the western region of Zhengzhou city, and production space is widespread and scattered throughout the study area. In 2035, the spatial distribution of the eco-environmental quality index is uneven. High eco-environmental area is located in the southwest and low eco-environmental area is located in the middle of Zhengzhou city. The main reason for the deterioration of the eco-environmental quality under five different SSPs scenarios was that agricultural productive land and water ecological land are occupied by urban living land. This research will provide a reference for future urban sustainable development and the ecological civilization construction.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22002217Ecological effectsFLUS modelProduction-living-ecological spaceShared socioeconomic pathways |
| spellingShingle | Xintong Jiang Shiyan Zhai Huan Liu Jing Chen Yueyue Zhu Zheng Wang Multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space and ecological effects based on shared socioeconomic pathways in Zhengzhou, China Ecological Indicators Ecological effects FLUS model Production-living-ecological space Shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title | Multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space and ecological effects based on shared socioeconomic pathways in Zhengzhou, China |
| title_full | Multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space and ecological effects based on shared socioeconomic pathways in Zhengzhou, China |
| title_fullStr | Multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space and ecological effects based on shared socioeconomic pathways in Zhengzhou, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space and ecological effects based on shared socioeconomic pathways in Zhengzhou, China |
| title_short | Multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space and ecological effects based on shared socioeconomic pathways in Zhengzhou, China |
| title_sort | multi scenario simulation of production living ecological space and ecological effects based on shared socioeconomic pathways in zhengzhou china |
| topic | Ecological effects FLUS model Production-living-ecological space Shared socioeconomic pathways |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22002217 |
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