Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa
Heatwaves in Africa are expected to increase in frequency, number, magnitude, and duration. This is significant because the health burden is only expected to worsen as heatwaves intensify. Inadequate knowledge of the climate’s impact on health in developing nations such as Africa makes safeguarding...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f41 |
| _version_ | 1797316668171485184 |
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| author | Paul Adigun Emmanuel Owoicho Abah Oluwaseun David Ajileye |
| author_facet | Paul Adigun Emmanuel Owoicho Abah Oluwaseun David Ajileye |
| author_sort | Paul Adigun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Heatwaves in Africa are expected to increase in frequency, number, magnitude, and duration. This is significant because the health burden is only expected to worsen as heatwaves intensify. Inadequate knowledge of the climate’s impact on health in developing nations such as Africa makes safeguarding the health of vulnerable groups at risk challenging. In this study, we quantify possible roles of human activity in heatwave intensification during the historical period, and project the future risk of heat-related mortality in Africa under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26) and (RCP60). Heatwaves are measured using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF); the daily minimum ( T _n ) and maximum ( T _x ) are used to compute the EHF index; by averaging T _x and T _n . Two heat factors, significance and acclimatization are combined in the EHF to quantify the total excess heat. Our results confirm the intensification of heatwaves across Africa in recent years is due anthropogenic activity (increase in greenhouse gas concentration and changes in land use). The Return event highlights the potential future escalation of heatwave conditions brought on by climate change and socioeconomic variables. RCP26 projects a substantial rise in heat-related mortality, with an increase from about 9000 mortality per year in the historical period to approximately 23 000 mortality per year at the end of the 21st century. Similarly, RCP60 showed an even more significant increase, with heat-related mortality increasing to about 43 000 annually. This study highlights the potentially growing risk of intensifying heatwaves in Africa under different emission scenarios. It projects a significant increase in heatwave magnitude, number, duration, frequency, and heat-related mortality. Africa’s low adaptive capacity will amplify the impact, emphasizing the need for emissions reduction and effective adaptation measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T03:22:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-78f2d49c38c84b2e960da93c27fa1425 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2752-5295 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T03:22:37Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-78f2d49c38c84b2e960da93c27fa14252024-02-12T08:53:18ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Climate2752-52952024-01-013101500710.1088/2752-5295/ad1f41Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over AfricaPaul Adigun0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8863-9113Emmanuel Owoicho Abah1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7323-0470Oluwaseun David Ajileye2Federal University of Technology , Akure, Ondo, NigeriaGraduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba , Tsukuba, Japan; Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, FCT Abuja , NigeriaEcology and Evolutionary Biology Program, Texas A&M University , College Station, United States of AmericaHeatwaves in Africa are expected to increase in frequency, number, magnitude, and duration. This is significant because the health burden is only expected to worsen as heatwaves intensify. Inadequate knowledge of the climate’s impact on health in developing nations such as Africa makes safeguarding the health of vulnerable groups at risk challenging. In this study, we quantify possible roles of human activity in heatwave intensification during the historical period, and project the future risk of heat-related mortality in Africa under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26) and (RCP60). Heatwaves are measured using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF); the daily minimum ( T _n ) and maximum ( T _x ) are used to compute the EHF index; by averaging T _x and T _n . Two heat factors, significance and acclimatization are combined in the EHF to quantify the total excess heat. Our results confirm the intensification of heatwaves across Africa in recent years is due anthropogenic activity (increase in greenhouse gas concentration and changes in land use). The Return event highlights the potential future escalation of heatwave conditions brought on by climate change and socioeconomic variables. RCP26 projects a substantial rise in heat-related mortality, with an increase from about 9000 mortality per year in the historical period to approximately 23 000 mortality per year at the end of the 21st century. Similarly, RCP60 showed an even more significant increase, with heat-related mortality increasing to about 43 000 annually. This study highlights the potentially growing risk of intensifying heatwaves in Africa under different emission scenarios. It projects a significant increase in heatwave magnitude, number, duration, frequency, and heat-related mortality. Africa’s low adaptive capacity will amplify the impact, emphasizing the need for emissions reduction and effective adaptation measures.https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f41health burdenpathwaysland-use changesmortalityescalating riskAfrican populations |
| spellingShingle | Paul Adigun Emmanuel Owoicho Abah Oluwaseun David Ajileye Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa Environmental Research: Climate health burden pathways land-use changes mortality escalating risk African populations |
| title | Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa |
| title_full | Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa |
| title_fullStr | Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa |
| title_short | Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa |
| title_sort | intensifying human driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over africa |
| topic | health burden pathways land-use changes mortality escalating risk African populations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f41 |
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